Veikkausliiga · Championship Group - 29
Gnistan vs AC Oulu
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
Gnistan host AC Oulu on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Veikkausliiga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gnistan 44%, draw 28%, AC Oulu 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gnistan €175K, AC Oulu €188K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Veikkausliiga): Gnistan rank #10 of 10, AC Oulu #3.
- Gnistan's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
- AC Oulu's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gnistan goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Gnistan 1411 · AC Oulu 1397
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gnistan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1470
AC Oulu · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Average) · Elo 1450
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gnistan
4th in Veikkausliiga · 36 pts from 22
- 17 OctLHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1411
- 12 OctLVPS Finland Veikkausliiga1393
- 7 OctDInter Turku Finland Veikkausliiga1434
- 18 SepDHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1367
- 12 SepWAC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga1400
AC Oulu
5th in Veikkausliiga · 34 pts from 22
- 17 OctWInter Turku Finland Veikkausliiga1374
- 12 OctLHJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga1385
- 8 OctWKuPS Finland Veikkausliiga1340
- 18 SepLInter Turku Finland Veikkausliiga1393
- 12 SepLGnistan Finland Veikkausliiga1380
Season outlook
From the Veikkausliiga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan | 42 /28 | 46.8 | 0% | 61% | 0% | 4th |
| AC Oulu | 40 /28 | 44.6 | 0% | 21% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gnistan: direct (how Jussi Leppälahti plays) · AC Oulu: balanced profile (how Mikko Isokangas plays)