Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 15
GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 13:45 UTC · Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Katowice
GKS Katowice host Lech Poznan on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: GKS Katowice 26%, draw 28%, Lech Poznan 47%.
- Average value of the expected XI: GKS Katowice €509K, Lech Poznan €1.9M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. GKS Katowice goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–29%
- 0–18%
- 2–27%
- 0–27%
- 2–16%
- Other scores50%
Team Elo: GKS Katowice 1687 · Lech Poznan 1924
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
GKS Katowice · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1733
Lech Poznan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1991
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
GKS Katowice
8th in Ekstraklasa · 21 pts from 14
- 8 NovLJagiellonia Ekstraklasa1723
- 31 OctWWidzew Łódź Ekstraklasa1699
- 24 OctLKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1708
- 17 OctLPogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa1718
- 12 OctWWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa1710
Lech Poznan
1st in Ekstraklasa · 32 pts from 13
- 8 NovDZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1918
- 5 NovLBenfica UEFA Europa League1940
- 31 OctWWisla Krakow Ekstraklasa1930
- 25 OctWLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1932
- 22 OctDSunderland UEFA Europa League1933
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 21 /14 | 46.4 | <1% | 7% | 3% | 9th |
| Lech Poznan | 32 /13 | 69.5 | 68% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
GKS Katowice: balanced profile (how Rafał Górak plays) · Lech Poznan: possession-based (how Niels Frederiksen plays)