Segunda División · Regular Season - 11
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona
Girona host Celta de Vigo II on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Segunda División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Girona 67%, draw 20%, Celta de Vigo II 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Girona €3.7M, Celta de Vigo II €380K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Segunda División matchday 11: 277 points.
- Draw chance 20%, below the Segunda División average of 27% this round.
- Segunda División: Fran Beltrán is the highest-rated midfielder (2050).
- Girona are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Girona goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Girona 1944 · Celta de Vigo II 1667
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Girona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1990
Celta de Vigo II · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 (Below) · Elo 1465
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Girona
5th in Segunda División · 18 pts from 10
- 18 OctWFC Andorra Spain Segunda Division1901
- 12 OctDTenerife Spain Segunda Division1965
- 4 OctDMallorca Spain Segunda Division1914
- 25 SepWAlbacete Spain Segunda Division1899
- 19 SepWCadiz Spain Segunda Division1917
Celta de Vigo II
15th in Segunda División · 11 pts from 9
- 10 OctWReal Sociedad II Spain Segunda Division1568
- 4 OctLSporting Gijon Spain Segunda Division1575
- 26 SepDSabadell Spain Segunda Division1603
- 20 SepLAlmeria Spain Segunda Division1603
- 14 SepLEibar Spain Segunda Division1617
Season outlook
From the Segunda División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 18 /10 | 75.4 | 23% | 71% | 0% | 1st |
| Celta de Vigo II | 11 /9 | 49.0 | 0% | <1% | 17% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 22nd on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –