K League 1 · Relegation Group - 36
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Jeju United FC on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (K League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%, draw 28%, Jeju United FC 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gimcheon Sangmu FC €369K, Jeju United FC €381K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (K League 1): Gimcheon Sangmu FC rank #2 of 12, Jeju United FC #11.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.3 over 180 days.
- Jeju United FC's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gimcheon Sangmu FC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–012%
- 0–010%
- 0–19%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- Other scores39%
Team Elo: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1565 · Jeju United FC 1547
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1662
Jeju United FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1656
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
10th in K League 1 · 34 pts from 33
- 7 NovWFC Anyang K League 11519
- 31 OctDGwangju FC K League 11545
- 24 OctLDaejeon Citizen K League 11552
- 18 OctDFC Seoul K League 11554
- 10 OctLFC Anyang K League 11511
Jeju United FC
7th in K League 1 · 46 pts from 33
- 7 NovDGwangju FC K League 11514
- 1 NovDPohang Steelers K League 11533
- 24 OctLIncheon United K League 11591
- 18 OctLJeonbuk Motors K League 11550
- 10 OctLFC Seoul K League 11604
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 38 /35 | 42.6 | 0% | 0% | 91% | 10th |
| Jeju United FC | 48 /35 | 51.9 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC: balanced profile (how Seung-jin Joo plays) · Jeju United FC: balanced profile (how Sergio Costa plays)