League Two · Regular Season - 12
Gillingham vs Port Vale
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham
Gillingham host Port Vale on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gillingham 40%, draw 29%, Port Vale 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gillingham €184K, Port Vale €313K.
- Home advantage makes Gillingham the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- League Two: J. Brophy is the highest-rated midfielder (1835).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gillingham goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Gillingham 1685 · Port Vale 1697
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gillingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1835
Port Vale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Average) · Elo 1725
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gillingham
6th in League Two · 16 pts from 11
- 17 OctLAccrington ST England League Two1697
- 13 OctWBrighton U21 England EFL Trophy1577
- 10 OctWRotherham England League Two1630
- 3 OctDNewport County England League Two1606
- 26 SepLYork England League Two1687
Port Vale
21st in League Two · 11 pts from 9
- 17 OctWChesterfield England League Two1683
- 10 OctWGrimsby England League Two1667
- 6 OctWMansfield Town England EFL Trophy1750
- 22 SepDChesterfield England EFL Trophy1676
- 19 SepLWalsall England League Two1685
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 16 /11 | 67.5 | 2% | 27% | 1% | 4th |
| Port Vale | 11 /9 | 64.4 | 1% | 15% | 3% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gillingham: balanced profile (how Gareth Ainsworth plays) · Port Vale: balanced profile (how Jonathan Edmund Alexander Brady plays)