League Two · Regular Season - 16
Gillingham vs Crewe
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham
Gillingham host Crewe on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gillingham 39%, draw 29%, Crewe 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gillingham €190K, Crewe €312K.
- Home advantage makes Gillingham the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gillingham goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- 0–07%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Gillingham 1693 · Crewe 1716
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gillingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1788
Crewe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1801
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gillingham
8th in League Two · 20 pts from 14
- 7 NovLBarrow England FA Cup1686
- 31 OctWShrewsbury England League Two1679
- 24 OctLGrimsby England League Two1680
- 20 OctDPort Vale England League Two1704
- 17 OctLAccrington ST England League Two1680
Crewe
4th in League Two · 22 pts from 14
- 10 NovLWigan England EFL Trophy1610
- 7 NovWAFC Wimbledon England FA Cup1715
- 31 OctDBarnet England League Two1713
- 24 OctLChesterfield England League Two1736
- 20 OctLExeter City England League Two1741
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 20 /14 | 66.8 | 1% | 22% | 1% | 5th |
| Crewe | 22 /14 | 70.4 | 2% | 40% | <1% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gillingham: balanced profile (how Gareth Ainsworth plays) · Crewe: balanced profile (how Lee Bell plays)