Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC
GIL Vicente host FC Porto on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: GIL Vicente 11%, draw 18%, FC Porto 72%.
- Average value of the expected XI: GIL Vicente €1.3M, FC Porto €21.6M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Primeira Liga matchday 9: 528 points.
- Primeira Liga: Diogo Costa is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2605).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. GIL Vicente goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–29%
- 0–39%
- 1–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–38%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: GIL Vicente 1773 · FC Porto 2301
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
GIL Vicente · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1754
FC Porto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2526
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
GIL Vicente
7th in Primeira Liga · 11 pts from 7
- 9 OctWMoreirense Primeira Liga1753
- 19 SepDMaritimo Primeira Liga1755
- 13 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1723
- 6 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1807
- 30 AugDFamalicao Primeira Liga1779
FC Porto
1st in Primeira Liga · 24 pts from 8
- 14 OctLReal Betis UEFA Champions League2354
- 10 OctWMaritimo Primeira Liga2345
- 20 SepWBenfica Primeira Liga2331
- 12 SepWCasa Pia Primeira Liga2304
- 8 SepLManchester City UEFA Champions League2311
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 11 /7 | 44.5 | 0% | 4% | 3% | 6th |
| FC Porto | 24 /8 | 85.9 | 80% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
GIL Vicente: balanced profile (how Luís Miguel Correia Pinto plays) · FC Porto: possession-based (how Francesco Farioli plays)