K League 1 · Regular Season - 32
Gangwon FC 1–1 Incheon United
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 07:30 UTC · Chuncheon Songam Sports Town, Chuncheon
Gangwon FCTeam 1605Incheon UnitedTeam 1561- Kim Dae-won 42'
- Stefan Mugoša 23' (pen)
We gave Gangwon FC 45% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 23'Stefan Mugoša – (pen.)Incheon United:Stefan Mugoša – (pen.)
- Kim Dae-won – assist Hwang Mun-Ki42'Gangwon FC:Kim Dae-won – assist Hwang Mun-Ki
- 56'Kim Seong-Min – for Morgan Ferrier –Incheon United:Kim Seong-Min – for Morgan Ferrier –
- 56'Gerso Fernandes – for Leandro Ribeiro –Incheon United:Gerso Fernandes – for Leandro Ribeiro –
- Kim Gun-hee – for Choe Byeong-chan –66'Gangwon FC:Kim Gun-hee – for Choe Byeong-chan –
- Lee You-hyeon – for Lee Seung-Won –66'Gangwon FC:Lee You-hyeon – for Lee Seung-Won –
- 71'Park Seung-ho – for Lee Chung-Yong –Incheon United:Park Seung-ho – for Lee Chung-Yong –
- 71'Seo Jae-min – for Lee Min-hyuk –Incheon United:Seo Jae-min – for Lee Min-hyuk –
- 72'Gerso Fernandes –Incheon United:Gerso Fernandes –
- Goh Young-jun –78'Gangwon FC:Goh Young-jun –
- 79'Juan Ibiza –Incheon United:Juan Ibiza –
- Kang Joon-Hyuck – for Abdelkarim Chaouche –89'Gangwon FC:Kang Joon-Hyuck – for Abdelkarim Chaouche –
- Park Sang-Hyeok – for Goh Young-jun –89'Gangwon FC:Park Sang-Hyeok – for Goh Young-jun –
- Kim Dong-hyeon – for Seo Min-woo –90+3'Gangwon FC:Kim Dong-hyeon – for Seo Min-woo –
Before kick-off (provisional): 45% · 28% · 27%(Gangwon FC · draw · Incheon United)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gangwon FC €357K, Incheon United €260K.
- Gangwon FC's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.1 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gangwon FC
3rd in K League 1 · 46 pts from 31
- 15 OctLPhnom Penh Crown AFC Cup1432
- 9 OctWBucheon FC 1995 K League 11619
- 27 SepDIncheon United K League 11625
- 20 SepLJeju United FC K League 11582
- 13 SepDGimcheon Sangmu FC K League 11550
Incheon United
7th in K League 1 · 42 pts from 31
- 9 OctWPohang Steelers K League 11512
- 27 SepDGangwon FC K League 11499
- 20 SepDDaejeon Citizen K League 11538
- 12 SepLUlsan Hyundai FC K League 11525
- 8 SepWBucheon FC 1995 K League 11541
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC | 46 /31 | 48.5 | 0% | 68% | 0% | 3rd |
| Incheon United | 42 /31 | 44.5 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gangwon FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1677
Incheon United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1515
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gangwon FC: balanced profile (how Kyung-Ho Chung plays) · Incheon United: balanced profile (how Jong-Hwan Yoon plays)