Premier Division · Regular Season - 35
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway
Galway United host St Patrick's Athl. on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Premier Division); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Galway United 28%, draw 28%, St Patrick's Athl. 44%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Galway United €153K, St Patrick's Athl. €286K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Premier Division): Galway United rank #11 of 11, St Patrick's Athl. #2.
- St Patrick's Athl.'s expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Galway United goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Galway United 1423 · St Patrick's Athl. 1600
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Galway United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.1 (Good) · Elo 1481
St Patrick's Athl. · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 1608
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Galway United
7th in Premier Division · 41 pts from 33
- 16 OctWShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1406
- 25 SepDShelbourne Irish Premier Division1405
- 18 SepLDerry City Irish Premier Division1413
- 14 SepWSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1388
- 11 SepLBohemians Irish Premier Division1399
St Patrick's Athl.
3rd in Premier Division · 59 pts from 33
- 16 OctLShelbourne Irish Premier Division1630
- 19 SepWSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1613
- 14 SepWDundalk Irish Premier Division1587
- 11 SepWShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1572
- 28 AugLWaterford Irish Premier Division1603
Season outlook
From the Premier Division simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United | 41 /33 | 44.3 | 0% | 3% | 9% | 6th |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 59 /33 | 63.4 | 5% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Galway United: direct (how John Caulfield plays) · St Patrick's Athl.: balanced profile (how Stephen Kenny plays)