Süper Lig · Regular Season - 7
Galatasaray 3–1 Kasımpaşa
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Rams Park Stadyumu, Istanbul
GalatasarayTeam 2191KasımpaşaTeam 1813We gave Galatasaray 73% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 73% · 17% · 10%(Galatasaray · draw · Kasımpaşa)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 3–1 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Galatasaray €12.2M, Kasımpaşa €1.4M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Süper Lig matchday 7: 390 points.
- Draw chance was 16%, below the Süper Lig average of 26% this round.
- Süper Lig: V. Osimhen was the highest-rated forward (2335).
- All 11 of Galatasaray's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Galatasaray
2nd in Süper Lig · 13 pts from 6
- 19 SepLTrabzonspor Turkey Super Lig2250
- 13 SepWKocaelispor Turkey Super Lig2250
- 9 SepLSporting CP UEFA Champions League2251
- 4 SepWBaşakşehir Turkey Super Lig2240
- 29 AugWGöztepe Turkey Super Lig2266
Kasımpaşa
8th in Süper Lig · 10 pts from 6
- 18 SepDKonyaspor Turkey Super Lig1792
- 13 SepWGençlerbirliği S.K. Turkey Super Lig1765
- 6 SepDAmed Turkey Super Lig1825
- 30 AugDBaşakşehir Turkey Super Lig1808
- 22 AugWÇorum FK Turkey Super Lig1816
Season outlook
From the Süper Lig simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 13 /6 | 69.2 | 32% | 97% | 0% | 1st |
| Kasımpaşa | 10 /6 | 41.8 | 0% | 1% | 12% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Galatasaray · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1869
Kasımpaşa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2023
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Galatasaray: creative · shot-heavy (how Okan Buruk plays) · Kasımpaşa: balanced profile (how Emre Belözoğlu plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.