Süper Lig · Regular Season - 9
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Rams Park, Istanbul
Galatasaray host Fenerbahçe on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (Süper Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Galatasaray 39%, draw 29%, Fenerbahçe 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Galatasaray €12.2M, Fenerbahçe €9.8M.
- Home advantage makes Galatasaray the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Süper Lig: Ederson is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2421).
- Fenerbahçe's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Galatasaray goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Galatasaray 2216 · Fenerbahçe 2266
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Galatasaray · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2253
Fenerbahçe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2335
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Galatasaray
1st in Süper Lig · 19 pts from 8
- 17 OctWGençlerbirliği S.K. Turkey Super Lig2207
- 13 OctLBarcelona UEFA Champions League2232
- 9 OctWKasımpaşa Turkey Super Lig2201
- 19 SepLTrabzonspor Turkey Super Lig2250
- 13 SepWKocaelispor Turkey Super Lig2250
Fenerbahçe
3rd in Süper Lig · 16 pts from 8
- 17 OctWAlanyaspor Turkey Super Lig2236
- 14 OctLAston Villa UEFA Champions League2267
- 10 OctWRizespor Turkey Super Lig2289
- 20 SepWEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig2257
- 14 SepDGaziantep FK Turkey Super Lig2301
Season outlook
From the Süper Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 19 /8 | 71.1 | 32% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
| Fenerbahçe | 16 /8 | 70.7 | 34% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Galatasaray: creative · shot-heavy (how Okan Buruk plays) · Fenerbahçe: shot-heavy · creative (how İsmail Kartal plays)