Allsvenskan · Regular Season - 23
Gais 0–1 Sirius
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
GaisTeam 1615SiriusTeam 1728- Isak Bjerkebo 78'
We gave Sirius 38% to win: they did.
- 56'Joakim Persson – for Zalán Vancsa –Sirius:Joakim Persson – for Zalán Vancsa –
- Samuel Salter – for Nikola·Vasic –62'Gais:Samuel Salter – for Nikola·Vasic –
- Christos Gravius – for Simon Jørgensen –63'Gais:Christos Gravius – for Simon Jørgensen –
- 72'N. Jönsson – for Ake AnderssonSirius:N. Jönsson – for Ake Andersson
- Oscar Pettersson – for Melvin Andersson –72'Gais:Oscar Pettersson – for Melvin Andersson –
- 72'Adam Vikman – for Victor Svensson –Sirius:Adam Vikman – for Victor Svensson –
- Jonas Lindberg – for Joackim Aberg –73'Gais:Jonas Lindberg – for Joackim Aberg –
- August Wangberg –77'Gais:August Wangberg –
- 78'Isak Bjerkebo – assist Joakim Persson –Sirius:Isak Bjerkebo – assist Joakim Persson –
- Robin Wendin Thomasson – for Matteo de Brienne –85'Gais:Robin Wendin Thomasson – for Matteo de Brienne –
- 88'Mohamed Soumah – for Isak Bjerkebo –Sirius:Mohamed Soumah – for Isak Bjerkebo –
Before kick-off (provisional): 33% · 29% · 38%(Gais · draw · Sirius)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–1 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gais €485K, Sirius €974K.
- Gais were without 2 expected starters: D. Collander (1368) and R. Þorkelsson (1678).
- Sirius were without 1 expected starter: M. Lindberg (1816).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Allsvenskan): Gais ranked #2 of 16, Sirius #16.
- Sirius' expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.5 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gais
10th in Allsvenskan · 30 pts from 22
- 20 SepWMjallby AIF Allsvenskan1560
- 14 SepLDjurgardens IF Allsvenskan1566
- 5 SepDBK Hacken Allsvenskan1600
- 31 AugWIF Brommapojkarna Allsvenskan1608
- 23 AugLHammarby FF Allsvenskan1645
Sirius
1st in Allsvenskan · 51 pts from 22
- 19 SepWOrgryte IS Allsvenskan1779
- 14 SepWDegerfors IF Allsvenskan1769
- 5 SepWVasteras SK FK Allsvenskan1746
- 31 AugLMalmo FF Allsvenskan1742
- 21 AugLBK Hacken Allsvenskan1781
Season outlook
From the Allsvenskan simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gais | 30 /22 | 41.2 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 10th |
| Sirius | 51 /22 | 63.2 | 84% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gais · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1705
Sirius · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1815
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gais: dribble-heavy (how Fredrik Jakob Holmberg plays) · Sirius: balanced profile (how Andreas Engelmark plays)