EFL Cup · Round of 16
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Craven Cottage, London
FulhamTeam 2213Crystal PalaceTeam 2235Fulham host Crystal Palace on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (EFL Cup); on the confirmed line-ups our model gives Fulham 46%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 28%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Fulham €14.9M, Crystal Palace €14.5M.
- Home advantage makes Fulham the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Prediction — confirmed line-ups
Provisional, from both squads' Elo: 43% · 28% · 29%
Most likely scores
On the confirmed line-ups. Fulham goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
- 2–07%
- 1–27%
- 0–06%
- Other scores51%
Confirmed line-ups
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fulham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2357
Crystal Palace · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2077
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fulham
15th in Premier League · 8 pts from 8
- 24 OctWCoventry Premier League2185
- 17 OctWHull City Premier League2198
- 10 OctLIpswich Premier League2199
- 20 SepDManchester United Premier League2186
- 15 SepWWest Ham England League Cup2118
Crystal Palace
17th in Premier League · 7 pts from 8
- 25 OctLNewcastle Premier League2250
- 22 OctDBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League2249
- 18 OctLBrighton Premier League2240
- 15 OctLLyon UEFA Europa League2267
- 11 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2238
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fulham: balanced profile (how Alvaro Arbeloa plays) · Crystal Palace: balanced profile (how Pierre Sage plays)