Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 host Werder Bremen on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FSV Mainz 05 47%, draw 27%, Werder Bremen 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FSV Mainz 05 €6.4M, Werder Bremen €6.2M.
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FSV Mainz 05 goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.8 pts
Team Elo: FSV Mainz 05 2072 · Werder Bremen 1974
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FSV Mainz 05 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2207
Werder Bremen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2145
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FSV Mainz 05
5th in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 6
- 17 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2089
- 10 OctLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2086
- 19 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2076
- 12 SepLEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2094
- 6 SepWHamburger SV Bundesliga2056
Werder Bremen
8th in Bundesliga · 9 pts from 6
- 17 OctDSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2037
- 9 OctDBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga2031
- 19 SepWFC Augsburg Bundesliga2004
- 12 SepD1. FC Köln Bundesliga2004
- 5 SepWRB Leipzig Bundesliga1956
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 10 /6 | 47.2 | 0% | 6% | 2% | 7th |
| Werder Bremen | 9 /6 | 40.6 | 0% | 1% | 12% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FSV Mainz 05: balanced profile (how Urs Fischer plays) · Werder Bremen: balanced profile (how Daniel Moustapha Thioune plays)