Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 host Bayern München on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FSV Mainz 05 12%, draw 20%, Bayern München 68%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FSV Mainz 05 €6.3M, Bayern München €37.5M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Bundesliga matchday 9: 453 points.
- Draw chance 20%, below the Bundesliga average of 26% this round.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2642).
- Style contrast in discipline (Bundesliga): FSV Mainz 05 rank #18 of 18, Bayern München #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FSV Mainz 05 goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–210%
- 1–19%
- 0–18%
- 0–38%
- 1–38%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 4.9 pts
Team Elo: FSV Mainz 05 2066 · Bayern München 2519
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FSV Mainz 05 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2207
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.1 (Elite) · Elo 2532
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FSV Mainz 05
5th in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 6
- 17 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2089
- 10 OctLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2086
- 19 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2076
- 12 SepLEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2094
- 6 SepWHamburger SV Bundesliga2056
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 21 OctDArsenal UEFA Champions League2483
- 17 OctWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2504
- 13 OctDViking UEFA Champions League2468
- 10 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga2548
- 18 SepWUnion Berlin Bundesliga2566
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 10 /6 | 46.6 | 0% | 5% | 2% | 7th |
| Bayern München | 14 /6 | 80.1 | 93% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FSV Mainz 05: balanced profile (how Urs Fischer plays) · Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays)