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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · MEWA Arena, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05Team 2081
3–4
Full time
HT 2–2
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer LeverkusenTeam 2295

Match story

FSV Mainz 05 · draw · Bayer Leverkusen

Before kick-off: 25% · 26% · 49%

Live chances: FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · FSV Mainz 05 25%, draw 27%, Bayer Leverkusen 49%3' · 0–0 · FSV Mainz 05 25%, draw 27%, Bayer Leverkusen 49%4' · 0–0 · FSV Mainz 05 25%, draw 27%, Bayer Leverkusen 49%5' · 0–0 · FSV Mainz 05 25%, draw 27%, Bayer Leverkusen 49%6' · 0–1 · FSV Mainz 05 12%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%7' · 0–1 · FSV Mainz 05 11%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%8' · 0–1 · FSV Mainz 05 11%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%9' · 0–1 · FSV Mainz 05 11%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%10' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 90%11' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%12' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%13' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%14' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%15' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%16' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%17' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%18' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%19' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%20' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%21' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%23' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%24' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 91%25' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%26' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 7%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%27' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 6%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%28' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 6%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%29' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 6%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%30' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 6%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%31' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 6%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%32' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 6%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%33' · 0–2 · FSV Mainz 05 2%, draw 6%, Bayer Leverkusen 92%34' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 9%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 71%35' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 9%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 71%36' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 9%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 71%37' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 9%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 71%38' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 9%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 71%39' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 9%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 71%40' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 9%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 71%41' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 8%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 72%42' · 1–2 · FSV Mainz 05 8%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 72%44' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 24%, draw 36%, Bayer Leverkusen 40%45' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 24%, draw 36%, Bayer Leverkusen 40%45+2' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 37%, Bayer Leverkusen 39%45+3' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 38%, Bayer Leverkusen 39%45+4' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 38%, Bayer Leverkusen 39%HT · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 38%, Bayer Leverkusen 39%47' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 38%, Bayer Leverkusen 39%48' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 39%, Bayer Leverkusen 38%49' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 39%, Bayer Leverkusen 38%50' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 40%, Bayer Leverkusen 38%51' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 40%, Bayer Leverkusen 37%52' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 23%, draw 41%, Bayer Leverkusen 37%53' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 22%, draw 41%, Bayer Leverkusen 36%54' · 2–2 · FSV Mainz 05 22%, draw 42%, Bayer Leverkusen 36%55' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 6%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 74%56' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 6%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 74%57' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 6%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 75%59' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 5%, draw 20%, Bayer Leverkusen 75%60' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 5%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 75%61' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 5%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 76%62' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 5%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 76%63' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 5%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 76%64' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 4%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 77%65' · 2–3 · FSV Mainz 05 4%, draw 19%, Bayer Leverkusen 77%66' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 3%, Bayer Leverkusen 97%67' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 3%, Bayer Leverkusen 97%68' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 3%, Bayer Leverkusen 97%69' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 3%, Bayer Leverkusen 97%70' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 97%71' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 97%72' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%73' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%74' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%75' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%76' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%77' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%78' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%80' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%81' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%82' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%83' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%84' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%85' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%86' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%87' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%88' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 0%, Bayer Leverkusen 100%89' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 0%, Bayer Leverkusen 100%90' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 0%, Bayer Leverkusen 100%90+1' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 0%, Bayer Leverkusen 100%90+2' · 2–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 0%, Bayer Leverkusen 100%90+3' · 3–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 5%, Bayer Leverkusen 95%90+4' · 3–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 3%, Bayer Leverkusen 96%90+5' · 3–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 2%, Bayer Leverkusen 98%90+6' · 3–4 · FSV Mainz 05 0%, draw 1%, Bayer Leverkusen 99%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 1% · 99%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Bayer Leverkusen 49% to win: they did.

  1. 5'Bayer Leverkusen:Robert Andrich 2306 +21*
  2. 9'Bayer Leverkusen:Patrik Schick 2300 +20* assist Aleix García 2320 +19*
  3. 20'FSV Mainz 05:Phillip Tietz 2113 −14*
  4. 33'FSV Mainz 05:Anthony Caci 2037 −12*
  5. 35'FSV Mainz 05:Sheraldo Becker 2068 −13*
  6. 42'FSV Mainz 05:Anthony Caci 2037 −12* assist Nadiem Amiri 2061 −17*
  7. 55'Bayer Leverkusen:Jarell Quansah 2426 +8
  8. 65'Bayer Leverkusen:Moussa Diaby 2212 +27* assist Afonso Moreira 2165 +7*
  9. 66'Bayer Leverkusen:Martin Terrier 2191 −5* for Ibrahim Maza 2252 +2*
  10. 70'FSV Mainz 05:Lee Jae-Sung 2104 −14* for Eric Martel 2032 −8*
  11. 70'FSV Mainz 05:Danny da Costa 2084 −13* for Anthony Caci 2037 −12*
  12. 70'FSV Mainz 05:Ransford Konigsdorffer 1991 −8* for Kacper Potulski 2012 −8*
  13. 75'Bayer Leverkusen:Nathan Tella 2305 −5* for Afonso Moreira 2165 +7*
  14. 75'Bayer Leverkusen:Malik Tillman 2267 −5* for Moussa Diaby 2212 +27*
  15. 76'FSV Mainz 05:Lee Jae-Sung 2104 −14*
  16. 77'FSV Mainz 05:Benedict Hollerbach 1969 −8* for Sheraldo Becker 2068 −13*
  17. 81'FSV Mainz 05:Lennard Maloney 1813 −8* for Kaishu Sano 2199 −16*
  18. 83'Bayer Leverkusen:Jonas Hofmann 1957 −12* for Patrik Schick 2300 +20*
  19. 84'Bayer Leverkusen:Equi Fernández 2266 −7* for Aleix García 2320 +19*
  20. 90+2'FSV Mainz 05:Benedict Hollerbach 1969 −8*
  21. 90+3'Bayer Leverkusen:Jarell Quansah 2426 +8

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-5-2Formations4-2-3-1
GA. Schwolow1887−10*
DS. Posch2194−10
DF. Gruber1996−8*
DK. Potulski2012−8*
MA. Caci2037−12*
MN. Amiri2061−17*
MK. Sano2199−16*
ME. Martel2032−8*
MP. Mwene2116−9
FS. Becker2068−13*
FP. Tietz2113−14*
CU. Fischer2133−19*
GM. Flekken2280+3*
DJ. Quansah2426+8
DE. Tapsoba2343+2*
DF. Medina2263+5*
DMiguel Gutiérrez2244+6*
MR. Andrich2306+21*
MAleix García2320+19*
MM. Diaby2212+27*
MI. Maza2252+2*
MAfonso Moreira2165+7*
FP. Schick2300+20*
CCarles Martínez2118+28*
Before kick-off: 25% · 26% · 49%(FSV Mainz 05 · draw · Bayer Leverkusen)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–4 had <1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: FSV Mainz 05 €7.9M, Bayer Leverkusen €21.8M.
  • Style contrast in pressing & duels (Bundesliga): FSV Mainz 05 ranked #1 of 18, Bayer Leverkusen #18.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

FSV Mainz 05

7th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 4

  • 19 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach 2076
  • 12 SepLEintracht Frankfurt 2094
  • 6 SepWHamburger SV 2056
  • 29 AugDSC Paderborn 07 2079
  • 16 MayW1. FC Heidenheim 2078

Bayer Leverkusen

6th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 4

  • 20 SepWRB Leipzig 2234
  • 16 SepWCelje 2226
  • 12 SepDFC Augsburg 2213
  • 5 SepWUnion Berlin 2235
  • 29 AugLSV Elversberg 2233

Season outlook

From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
FSV Mainz 057 /448.10%10%2%7th
Bayer Leverkusen7 /459.31%65%0%3rd
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

K. Sano
K. Sano

FSV Mainz 05 · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2215

Aleix García
Aleix García

Bayer Leverkusen · +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2301

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Urs Fischer

Coach DNA: direct

Carles Martínez Novell

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

FSV Mainz 05: balanced profile (how Urs Fischer plays) · Bayer Leverkusen: possession-based · low-block (how Carles Martínez Novell plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.