Primera A · Clausura - 14
Fortaleza FC 1–1 Millonarios
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 01:10 UTC · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota
Fortaleza FCTeam 1432MillonariosTeam 1678We gave Millonarios 44% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 44%(Fortaleza FC · draw · Millonarios)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Fortaleza FC €282K, Millonarios €532K.
- Millonarios were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fortaleza FC
15th in Primera A · 22 pts from 19
- 4 OctDDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1448
- 27 SepDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1456
- 20 SepLJunior Colombia Primera A1464
- 11 SepDJaguares Colombia Primera A1481
- 5 SepDSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1460
Millonarios
10th in Primera A · 26 pts from 19
- 30 SepDIndependiente Medellin Colombia Primera A1670
- 25 SepDAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1698
- 19 SepWChico Colombia Primera A1703
- 14 SepWCucuta Colombia Primera A1624
- 11 SepDDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1718
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza FC | 22 /19 | 28.3 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 15th |
| Millonarios | 26 /19 | 36.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fortaleza FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1656
Millonarios · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.6 (Good) · Elo 1798
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fortaleza FC: balanced profile (how Diego Arias plays) · Millonarios: balanced profile (how Alberto Miguel Gamero Morillo plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.