Primera A · Clausura - 18
Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Fortaleza FC host Independiente Medellin on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fortaleza FC 32%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fortaleza FC €245K, Independiente Medellin €458K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fortaleza FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Fortaleza FC 1499 · Independiente Medellin 1695
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fortaleza FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1691
Independiente Medellin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1691
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fortaleza FC
15th in Primera A · 22 pts from 19
- 20 OctLInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1475
- 9 OctDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1485
- 4 OctDDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1460
- 27 SepDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1466
- 20 SepLJunior Colombia Primera A1468
Independiente Medellin
11th in Primera A · 26 pts from 19
- 18 OctLOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1703
- 12 OctWAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1666
- 6 OctLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1668
- 30 SepDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1685
- 27 SepLJunior Colombia Primera A1720
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza FC | 22 /19 | 26.2 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 15th |
| Independiente Medellin | 26 /19 | 32.7 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fortaleza FC: balanced profile (how Diego Arias plays) · Independiente Medellin: possession-based (how L. Perea plays)