Serie B · Regular Season - 38
Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC
Fortaleza EC host Vila Nova on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fortaleza EC 53%, draw 26%, Vila Nova 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fortaleza EC €885K, Vila Nova €438K.
- Serie B: Lucas Gazal is the highest-rated defender (1917).
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fortaleza EC goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Fortaleza EC 1789 · Vila Nova 1707
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fortaleza EC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1878
Vila Nova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Average) · Elo 1799
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fortaleza EC
4th in Serie B · 61 pts from 35
- 24 OctDPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1769
- 16 OctWSport Recife Brazil Serie B1752
- 12 OctDCRB Brazil Serie B1709
- 7 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1767
- 3 OctDNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1777
Vila Nova
3rd in Serie B · 62 pts from 35
- 24 OctLSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1733
- 18 OctDNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1721
- 11 OctWNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1697
- 7 OctDCuiaba Brazil Serie B1721
- 3 OctWBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1710
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 61 /35 | 65.8 | 6% | 83% | 0% | 4th |
| Vila Nova | 62 /35 | 66.0 | 7% | 82% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fortaleza EC: direct (how Paulo Autuori plays) · Vila Nova: balanced profile (how Guto Ferreira plays)