Canadian Premier League · Semi-finals
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Tim Hortons Field
Forge host Atlético Ottawa on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Canadian Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Forge 50%, draw 27%, Atlético Ottawa 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Forge €219K, Atlético Ottawa €154K.
- Canadian Premier League: D. Nimick is the highest-rated defender (1778).
- Style contrast in chance creation (Canadian Premier League): Forge rank #3 of 7, Atlético Ottawa #4.
- Atlético Ottawa's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
- Forge are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Forge goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Forge 1619 · Atlético Ottawa 1510
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Forge · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1778
Atlético Ottawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1563
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Forge
2nd in Canadian Premier League · 58 pts from 28
- 25 OctDPacific FC Canada Premier League1684
- 17 OctWAtlético Ottawa Canada Premier League1578
- 12 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1585
- 7 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1587
- 3 OctDHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1580
Atlético Ottawa
3rd in Canadian Premier League · 43 pts from 28
- 25 OctLYork United Canada Premier League1481
- 17 OctLForge Canada Premier League1497
- 11 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1493
- 30 SepWCavalry FC Canada Premier League1444
- 26 SepWHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1393
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forge | 58 /28 | 61.2 | 22% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Atlético Ottawa | 43 /28 | 45.3 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Forge: balanced profile (how Bobby Smyrniotis plays) · Atlético Ottawa: balanced profile (how Gustavo Leal plays)