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Serie A · Regular Season - 31

Fluminense 1–2 Santos

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

Fluminense crestFluminenseTeam 1937
1–2
Full time
HT 1–0
Santos crestSantosTeam 1929

Match story

Fluminense · draw · Santos

Before kick-off: 48% · 28% · 24%

Live chances: Fluminense 0%, draw 0%, Santos 100% at 90+9'1' · 0–0 · Fluminense 48%, draw 28%, Santos 24%2' · 0–0 · Fluminense 48%, draw 28%, Santos 24%3' · 0–0 · Fluminense 48%, draw 28%, Santos 24%4' · 0–0 · Fluminense 48%, draw 28%, Santos 24%5' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%6' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%7' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%8' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%9' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%10' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%11' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%12' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 18%, Santos 9%13' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 9%14' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 9%15' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 9%17' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 9%18' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 9%19' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 9%20' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%21' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%22' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%23' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%24' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%25' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%26' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%27' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%28' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%29' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%30' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%31' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%32' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%33' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%34' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 8%35' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 7%36' · 1–0 · Fluminense 73%, draw 19%, Santos 7%37' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%38' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%40' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%41' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%42' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%43' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%44' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%45' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%45+1' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 7%45+2' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 6%45+3' · 1–0 · Fluminense 74%, draw 19%, Santos 6%HT · 1–0 · Fluminense 75%, draw 19%, Santos 6%46' · 1–0 · Fluminense 75%, draw 19%, Santos 6%47' · 1–0 · Fluminense 75%, draw 19%, Santos 6%48' · 1–0 · Fluminense 75%, draw 19%, Santos 6%49' · 1–0 · Fluminense 75%, draw 19%, Santos 6%50' · 1–1 · Fluminense 38%, draw 39%, Santos 23%51' · 1–1 · Fluminense 37%, draw 40%, Santos 23%52' · 1–1 · Fluminense 37%, draw 40%, Santos 23%53' · 1–1 · Fluminense 37%, draw 41%, Santos 22%54' · 1–1 · Fluminense 36%, draw 42%, Santos 22%55' · 1–2 · Fluminense 14%, draw 29%, Santos 57%56' · 1–2 · Fluminense 14%, draw 29%, Santos 58%57' · 1–2 · Fluminense 13%, draw 28%, Santos 58%58' · 1–2 · Fluminense 13%, draw 28%, Santos 59%59' · 1–2 · Fluminense 12%, draw 28%, Santos 60%60' · 1–2 · Fluminense 12%, draw 28%, Santos 60%61' · 1–2 · Fluminense 11%, draw 28%, Santos 61%62' · 1–2 · Fluminense 11%, draw 28%, Santos 61%63' · 1–2 · Fluminense 11%, draw 28%, Santos 62%64' · 1–2 · Fluminense 10%, draw 27%, Santos 62%65' · 1–2 · Fluminense 10%, draw 27%, Santos 63%66' · 1–2 · Fluminense 9%, draw 27%, Santos 64%67' · 1–2 · Fluminense 9%, draw 27%, Santos 64%68' · 1–2 · Fluminense 9%, draw 26%, Santos 65%69' · 1–2 · Fluminense 8%, draw 26%, Santos 66%70' · 1–2 · Fluminense 8%, draw 26%, Santos 66%71' · 1–2 · Fluminense 7%, draw 25%, Santos 67%72' · 1–2 · Fluminense 7%, draw 25%, Santos 68%73' · 1–2 · Fluminense 7%, draw 25%, Santos 69%74' · 1–2 · Fluminense 6%, draw 24%, Santos 70%75' · 1–2 · Fluminense 6%, draw 24%, Santos 70%76' · 1–2 · Fluminense 5%, draw 23%, Santos 71%77' · 1–2 · Fluminense 5%, draw 23%, Santos 72%78' · 1–2 · Fluminense 5%, draw 22%, Santos 73%79' · 1–2 · Fluminense 4%, draw 22%, Santos 74%80' · 1–2 · Fluminense 4%, draw 21%, Santos 75%81' · 1–2 · Fluminense 4%, draw 20%, Santos 76%82' · 1–2 · Fluminense 3%, draw 20%, Santos 77%83' · 1–2 · Fluminense 3%, draw 19%, Santos 78%84' · 1–2 · Fluminense 3%, draw 18%, Santos 79%85' · 1–2 · Fluminense 2%, draw 17%, Santos 81%86' · 1–2 · Fluminense 2%, draw 16%, Santos 82%87' · 1–2 · Fluminense 2%, draw 15%, Santos 83%88' · 1–2 · Fluminense 1%, draw 14%, Santos 85%89' · 1–2 · Fluminense 1%, draw 13%, Santos 86%90' · 1–2 · Fluminense 1%, draw 12%, Santos 88%90+1' · 1–2 · Fluminense 1%, draw 10%, Santos 89%90+2' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 9%, Santos 91%90+3' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 7%, Santos 93%90+4' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 5%, Santos 95%90+5' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 3%, Santos 97%90+6' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 1%, Santos 99%90+7' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 0%, Santos 100%90+8' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 0%, Santos 100%90+9' · 1–2 · Fluminense 0%, draw 0%, Santos 100%

Last reading, 90+9': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Fluminense 48% to win: Santos won.

  1. 4'Fluminense:Rodrigo Castillo 1897 −1 assist Igor Rabello 1717 −10*
  2. 25'Santos:Álvaro Barreal 1946 +20
  3. 31'Fluminense:Agustín Canobbio 2045 −6
  4. 49'Santos:Gabriel Barbosa 2048 +38 assist Rodinei 2053 +31
  5. 54'Santos:Philippe Coutinho 1984 +34 assist Gabriel Bontempo 2030 +45
  6. 57'Fluminense:Hulk 1738 −15 for Rodrigo Castillo 1897 −1
  7. 57'Fluminense:Jefferson David Savarino Quintero 2046 −5 for Yeferson Soteldo 1951 −3
  8. 57'Fluminense:Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima 1670 −10 for Luciano Acosta 1967 −6
  9. 57'Fluminense:Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado – for Agustín Canobbio 2045 −6
  10. 72'Santos:Rony 1904 +9 for Philippe Coutinho 1984 +34
  11. 72'Santos:Christian Oliva 2022 +1 for Everton 2063 +8
  12. 76'Fluminense:Kevin Serna 2114 −6 for Gustavo Nonato Santana 2039 −8
  13. 83'Santos:João Alencar Santos Paes da Costa 1563 −4* for Lucas Veríssimo 1952 +16
  14. 87'Santos:Rafael Gonzaga 1573 −6* for Álvaro Barreal 1946 +20
  15. 87'Santos:Benjamín Rollheiser 1938 0 for Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior 1899 +17

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GFábio1680−20
DSamuel Xavier1803−8
DIgnacio2006−8
DIgor Rabello1717−10*
DRenê1990−19*
MNonato2039−8
MHércules2053−29
MA. Canobbio2045−6
ML. Acosta1967−6
MY. Soteldo1951−3
FR. Castillo1897−1
CMarcão19120
GDiógenes1801+32
DRodinei2053+31
DLucas Veríssimo1952+16
DLuan Peres1963+16
DÁ. Barreal1946+20
MGustavo Henrique Pereira1820+31
MPhilippe Coutinho1984+34
MGabriel Bontempo2030+45
MNeymar1899+17
MEverton2063+8
FGabriel Barbosa2048+38
CCuca2031+29
Before kick-off: 48% · 28% · 24%(Fluminense · draw · Santos)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–2 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Fluminense €3.1M, Santos €2.7M.
  • Fluminense were without 1 expected starter: Guilherme Arana (1994).
  • Santos were without 1 expected starter: Willian Arão (1957).
  • All 11 of Fluminense's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Fluminense

4th in Série A · 51 pts from 30

  • 15 OctLPalmeiras 1953
  • 11 OctLFlamengo 1982
  • 9 OctWCoritiba 1954
  • 20 SepWCorinthians 1927
  • 15 SepLPlatense 1925

Santos

9th in Série A · 42 pts from 30

  • 11 OctLAtletico-MG 1972
  • 8 OctDFlamengo 1962
  • 2 OctWSao Paulo 1970
  • 19 SepWRemo 1926
  • 16 SepLAtletico-MG 1952

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Fluminense51 /3063.50%69%0%3rd
Santos42 /3053.30%1%0%8th
Fluminense
Santos

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Ignacio
Ignacio

Fluminense · +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2014

Neymar
Neymar

Santos · +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 1882

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Marco Aurélio de Oliveira

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Alexi Stival

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Fluminense: possession-based (how Marco Aurélio de Oliveira plays) · Santos: balanced profile (how Alexi Stival plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.