Serie A · Regular Season - 36
Fluminense vs Mirassol
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Fluminense host Mirassol on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fluminense 61%, draw 23%, Mirassol 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fluminense €3.8M, Mirassol €1.5M.
- All 11 of Fluminense's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- All 11 of Mirassol's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fluminense goals first.
- 1–013%
- 2–012%
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 0–08%
- 3–07%
- Other scores39%
Team Elo: Fluminense 1993 · Mirassol 1830
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fluminense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 1937
Mirassol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1911
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fluminense
4th in Série A · 57 pts from 34
- 6 NovWVitoria Brazil Serie A1985
- 28 OctWInternacional Brazil Serie A1947
- 24 OctLChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1941
- 22 OctWPalmeiras Copa Libertadores1919
- 18 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1933
Mirassol
14th in Série A · 40 pts from 34
- 3 NovWChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1846
- 30 OctLCorinthians Brazil Serie A1827
- 24 OctDSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1850
- 16 OctWInternacional Brazil Serie A1815
- 11 OctLBahia Brazil Serie A1800
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 57 /34 | 63.2 | 0% | 84% | 0% | 4th |
| Mirassol | 40 /34 | 44.6 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fluminense: possession-based (how Marcão plays) · Mirassol: balanced profile (how Rafael Guanaes plays)