Serie A · Regular Season - 37
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro
Fri 27 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Fluminense host Cruzeiro on Fri 27 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fluminense 46%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fluminense €3.8M, Cruzeiro €4.9M.
- Home advantage makes Fluminense the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Cruzeiro's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.8 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Fluminense's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fluminense goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 0–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Fluminense 1993 · Cruzeiro 2013
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fluminense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 1937
Cruzeiro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.5 (Elite) · Elo 2126
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fluminense
4th in Série A · 57 pts from 34
- 6 NovWVitoria Brazil Serie A1985
- 28 OctWInternacional Brazil Serie A1947
- 24 OctLChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1941
- 22 OctWPalmeiras Copa Libertadores1919
- 18 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1933
Cruzeiro
3rd in Série A · 60 pts from 34
- 6 NovWBahia Brazil Serie A2016
- 29 OctWAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A2040
- 23 OctWRemo Brazil Serie A2033
- 18 OctWGremio Brazil Serie A2013
- 13 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2001
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 57 /34 | 63.3 | 0% | 84% | 0% | 4th |
| Cruzeiro | 60 /34 | 66.2 | 0% | 96% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fluminense: possession-based (how Marcão plays) · Cruzeiro: balanced profile (how Artur Jorge plays)