Serie A · Regular Season - 29
Fluminense 4–0 Coritiba
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
FluminenseTeam 1925CoritibaTeam 1785We gave Fluminense 60% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 60% · 23% · 17%(Fluminense · draw · Coritiba)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 4–0 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Fluminense €3.8M, Coritiba €1.1M.
- Fluminense were without 2 expected starters: A. Canobbio (2067) and Nonato (2066).
- Coritiba were without 4 expected starters: Pedro Luccas (1837), Tiago Cóser (1832), João Pedro Chermont (1893) and J. Lavega (1722).
- All 11 of Fluminense's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fluminense
5th in Série A · 48 pts from 28
- 20 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1927
- 15 SepLPlatense Copa Libertadores1925
- 12 SepLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1908
- 8 SepWPlatense Copa Libertadores1907
- 6 SepWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1913
Coritiba
9th in Série A · 38 pts from 28
- 19 SepLVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1742
- 12 SepDAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1816
- 6 SepLMirassol Brazil Serie A1806
- 31 AugWRemo Brazil Serie A1799
- 23 AugWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1798
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 48 /28 | 63.2 | 0% | 62% | 0% | 3rd |
| Coritiba | 38 /28 | 47.6 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fluminense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2151
Coritiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1754
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fluminense: possession-based (how Marco Aurélio de Oliveira plays) · Coritiba: balanced profile (how Fernando Seabra plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.