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League Two · Regular Season - 11

Fleetwood Town 2–0 Rotherham

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood

Fleetwood Town crestFleetwood TownTeam 1559
2–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Rotherham crestRotherhamTeam 1607

Match story

Fleetwood Town · draw · Rotherham

Before kick-off: 36% · 32% · 32%

Live chances: Fleetwood Town 100%, draw 0%, Rotherham 0% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 36%, draw 32%, Rotherham 32%2' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 36%, draw 32%, Rotherham 32%3' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 32%, Rotherham 32%4' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 32%, Rotherham 32%5' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 32%, Rotherham 32%6' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 32%, Rotherham 32%7' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 33%, Rotherham 32%8' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 33%, Rotherham 32%9' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 33%, Rotherham 32%10' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 33%, Rotherham 32%11' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 33%, Rotherham 32%12' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 33%, Rotherham 32%13' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 33%, Rotherham 32%14' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 34%, Rotherham 32%15' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 35%, draw 34%, Rotherham 32%16' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 34%, Rotherham 32%17' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 34%, Rotherham 32%18' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 34%, Rotherham 32%19' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 34%, Rotherham 31%20' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 34%, Rotherham 31%21' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 35%, Rotherham 31%22' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 35%, Rotherham 31%23' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 35%, Rotherham 31%24' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 35%, Rotherham 31%25' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 35%, Rotherham 31%26' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 34%, draw 36%, Rotherham 31%27' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 36%, Rotherham 31%28' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 36%, Rotherham 31%29' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 36%, Rotherham 31%30' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 36%, Rotherham 31%31' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 37%, Rotherham 30%32' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 37%, Rotherham 30%33' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 37%, Rotherham 30%34' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 33%, draw 37%, Rotherham 30%35' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 32%, draw 38%, Rotherham 30%36' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 32%, draw 38%, Rotherham 30%37' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 32%, draw 38%, Rotherham 30%38' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 32%, draw 38%, Rotherham 30%39' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 32%, draw 39%, Rotherham 30%40' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 32%, draw 39%, Rotherham 29%41' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 32%, draw 39%, Rotherham 29%42' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 31%, draw 39%, Rotherham 29%43' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 31%, draw 40%, Rotherham 29%44' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 31%, draw 40%, Rotherham 29%45' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 31%, draw 40%, Rotherham 29%45+1' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 31%, draw 41%, Rotherham 29%HT · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 30%, draw 42%, Rotherham 28%46' · 0–0 · Fleetwood Town 30%, draw 42%, Rotherham 28%47' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 69%, draw 23%, Rotherham 8%48' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 69%, draw 23%, Rotherham 8%49' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 69%, draw 23%, Rotherham 8%50' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 70%, draw 23%, Rotherham 7%51' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 70%, draw 23%, Rotherham 7%52' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 70%, draw 23%, Rotherham 7%53' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 70%, draw 23%, Rotherham 7%54' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 71%, draw 23%, Rotherham 7%55' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 71%, draw 22%, Rotherham 6%56' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 72%, draw 22%, Rotherham 6%57' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 72%, draw 22%, Rotherham 6%58' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 72%, draw 22%, Rotherham 6%60' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 73%, draw 22%, Rotherham 5%61' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 73%, draw 21%, Rotherham 5%62' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 74%, draw 21%, Rotherham 5%63' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 74%, draw 21%, Rotherham 5%64' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 75%, draw 21%, Rotherham 5%65' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 75%, draw 21%, Rotherham 4%66' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 75%, draw 20%, Rotherham 4%67' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 76%, draw 20%, Rotherham 4%68' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 76%, draw 20%, Rotherham 4%69' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 77%, draw 20%, Rotherham 4%70' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 77%, draw 19%, Rotherham 4%71' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 78%, draw 19%, Rotherham 3%72' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 78%, draw 19%, Rotherham 3%73' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 79%, draw 18%, Rotherham 3%74' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 79%, draw 18%, Rotherham 3%75' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 80%, draw 18%, Rotherham 3%76' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 80%, draw 17%, Rotherham 2%77' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 81%, draw 17%, Rotherham 2%78' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 82%, draw 16%, Rotherham 2%79' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 82%, draw 16%, Rotherham 2%80' · 1–0 · Fleetwood Town 83%, draw 15%, Rotherham 2%81' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%82' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%83' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%84' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%85' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%86' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%87' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%88' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 99%, draw 1%, Rotherham 0%89' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 100%, draw 0%, Rotherham 0%90' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 100%, draw 0%, Rotherham 0%90+1' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 100%, draw 0%, Rotherham 0%90+2' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 100%, draw 0%, Rotherham 0%90+3' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 100%, draw 0%, Rotherham 0%90+4' · 2–0 · Fleetwood Town 100%, draw 0%, Rotherham 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Fleetwood Town 36% to win: they did.

  1. 38'Rotherham:brandon cover 1612 0
  2. 46'Fleetwood Town:Shaun Rooney 1746 +41
  3. 53'Rotherham:Aaron Nemane 1750 −6 for Sonny Aljofree 1601 0
  4. 53'Rotherham:kian spence 1724 −4 for Josh Austerfield 1761 −8
  5. 54'Rotherham:K. Lolas for Tom Bradshaw 1552 −6
  6. 54'Rotherham:Jayce Fitzgerald 1810 −7 for brandon cover 1612 0
  7. 62'Rotherham:H. Douglas 1620 0
  8. 65'Fleetwood Town:Will davies 1613 +6 for Ched Evans 1377 +25
  9. 65'Fleetwood Town:Mark Helm 1717 +16
  10. 66'Fleetwood Town:Ronan Coughlan 1631 +69
  11. 77'Fleetwood Town:Crispin McLean 1428 +9* for Adam Murphy 1444 +37
  12. 80'Fleetwood Town:Ronan Coughlan 1631 +69 assist Crispin McLean 1428 +9*
  13. 85'Fleetwood Town:Conor Haughey 1571 −4* for Mark Helm 1717 +16
  14. 85'Fleetwood Town:R. Cirino 1195 +8 for Ronan Coughlan 1631 +69
  15. 89'Rotherham:K. Lolas
  16. 89'Fleetwood Town:Jay Lynch 1718 +15
  17. 90+1'Rotherham:Dominic Iorfa 1669 −5
  18. 90+1'Fleetwood Town:Lewis McCann 1644 +23

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-1-4-2Formations4-3-3
GJ. Lynch1718+15
DS. Rooney1746+41
DR. Bennett1725+17
DF. Potter1777+35
MH. Neal1717+17
ML. McCann1644+23
MA. Murphy1444+37
MM. Helm1717+16
MJake Thomas Batty1632+25
FC. Evans1377+25
FR. Coughlan1631+69
CM. Lawlor1653+45
GJ. Eyestone1722−9
DBrandon Ashley Cover16120
DD. Iorfa1669−5
DSonny Aljofree16010
DH. Douglas16200
MJamie Jellis16480
MD. Hall1720−8
MJ. Austerfield1761−8
FP. Mullin1657−4
FT. Bradshaw1552−6
FJ. Buyabu16100
CA. Bruce15240
Before kick-off: 36% · 32% · 32%(Fleetwood Town · draw · Rotherham)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (15%); the result 2–0 had 7%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Fleetwood Town €210K, Rotherham €276K.
  • Home advantage made Fleetwood Town the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
  • Fleetwood Town's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.4 over 180 days.
  • Rotherham's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.6 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Fleetwood Town

16th in League Two · 11 pts from 10

  • 10 OctDWalsall 1613
  • 6 OctWBarnsley 1677
  • 3 OctLSalford City 1624
  • 26 SepLRochdale 1588
  • 22 SepLOldham 1468

Rotherham

20th in League Two · 10 pts from 10

  • 10 OctLGillingham 1671
  • 6 OctLBradford 1644
  • 3 OctLExeter City 1657
  • 26 SepDCrewe 1675
  • 22 SepDYork 1578

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Fleetwood Town11 /1058.5<1%3%9%13th
Rotherham10 /1061.1<1%6%5%10th
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

R. Coughlan
R. Coughlan

Fleetwood Town · +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1562

P. Mullin
P. Mullin

Rotherham · +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1661

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Matthew Lawlor

Coach DNA: low-block · low-volume

Alex Bruce

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Fleetwood Town: balanced profile (how Matthew Lawlor plays) · Rotherham: direct (how Alex Bruce plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.