Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Flamengo vs Gremio
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Flamengo host Gremio on Wed 4 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Flamengo 77%, draw 15%, Gremio 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Flamengo €11.2M, Gremio €1.9M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Série A matchday 34: 378 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the Série A average of 26% this round.
- Série A: A. Rossi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2368).
- Style contrast in possession (Série A): Flamengo rank #1 of 20, Gremio #18.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Flamengo goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–17%
- 1–07%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Flamengo 2263 · Gremio 1885
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Flamengo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.1 (Good) · Elo 2338
Gremio · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 1914
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Flamengo
1st in Série A · 67 pts from 31
- 18 OctWBahia Brazil Serie A2262
- 16 OctDEstudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores2201
- 11 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A2213
- 8 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A2220
- 20 SepWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2236
Gremio
18th in Série A · 31 pts from 31
- 18 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1903
- 11 OctDInternacional Brazil Serie A1892
- 7 OctDRemo Brazil Serie A1884
- 20 SepDPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1907
- 16 SepLBotafogo Brazil Serie A1897
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 67 /31 | 81.8 | 69% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Gremio | 31 /31 | 39.9 | 0% | 0% | 43% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Flamengo: possession-based (how Leonardo Jardim plays) · Gremio: dribble-heavy (how Renato Portaluppi plays)