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Serie A · Regular Season - 30

Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

Flamengo crestFlamengoTeam 2206
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Fluminense crestFluminenseTeam 1972

Match story

Flamengo · draw · Fluminense

Before kick-off: 66% · 21% · 13%

Live chances: Flamengo 100%, draw 0%, Fluminense 0% at 90+9'1' · 0–0 · Flamengo 66%, draw 21%, Fluminense 13%2' · 0–0 · Flamengo 66%, draw 22%, Fluminense 13%3' · 0–0 · Flamengo 66%, draw 22%, Fluminense 13%4' · 0–0 · Flamengo 65%, draw 22%, Fluminense 13%5' · 0–0 · Flamengo 65%, draw 22%, Fluminense 13%6' · 0–0 · Flamengo 65%, draw 22%, Fluminense 13%7' · 0–0 · Flamengo 65%, draw 22%, Fluminense 13%8' · 0–0 · Flamengo 64%, draw 23%, Fluminense 13%9' · 0–0 · Flamengo 64%, draw 23%, Fluminense 13%10' · 0–0 · Flamengo 64%, draw 23%, Fluminense 13%11' · 0–0 · Flamengo 64%, draw 23%, Fluminense 13%12' · 0–0 · Flamengo 63%, draw 23%, Fluminense 13%13' · 0–0 · Flamengo 63%, draw 24%, Fluminense 13%14' · 0–0 · Flamengo 63%, draw 24%, Fluminense 13%16' · 0–0 · Flamengo 62%, draw 24%, Fluminense 14%17' · 0–0 · Flamengo 62%, draw 24%, Fluminense 14%18' · 0–0 · Flamengo 62%, draw 25%, Fluminense 14%19' · 0–0 · Flamengo 61%, draw 25%, Fluminense 14%21' · 0–0 · Flamengo 61%, draw 25%, Fluminense 14%22' · 0–0 · Flamengo 61%, draw 26%, Fluminense 14%23' · 0–0 · Flamengo 60%, draw 26%, Fluminense 14%24' · 0–0 · Flamengo 60%, draw 26%, Fluminense 14%25' · 0–0 · Flamengo 60%, draw 26%, Fluminense 14%26' · 0–0 · Flamengo 59%, draw 27%, Fluminense 14%27' · 0–0 · Flamengo 59%, draw 27%, Fluminense 14%28' · 0–0 · Flamengo 59%, draw 27%, Fluminense 14%29' · 0–0 · Flamengo 58%, draw 27%, Fluminense 14%31' · 0–0 · Flamengo 58%, draw 28%, Fluminense 14%32' · 0–0 · Flamengo 57%, draw 28%, Fluminense 14%33' · 0–0 · Flamengo 57%, draw 29%, Fluminense 14%34' · 0–0 · Flamengo 57%, draw 29%, Fluminense 14%35' · 0–0 · Flamengo 56%, draw 29%, Fluminense 15%36' · 0–0 · Flamengo 56%, draw 30%, Fluminense 15%37' · 0–0 · Flamengo 55%, draw 30%, Fluminense 15%38' · 0–0 · Flamengo 55%, draw 30%, Fluminense 15%39' · 0–0 · Flamengo 55%, draw 31%, Fluminense 15%40' · 0–0 · Flamengo 54%, draw 31%, Fluminense 15%41' · 0–0 · Flamengo 54%, draw 31%, Fluminense 15%42' · 0–0 · Flamengo 53%, draw 32%, Fluminense 15%43' · 0–0 · Flamengo 53%, draw 32%, Fluminense 15%44' · 0–0 · Flamengo 53%, draw 33%, Fluminense 15%45+1' · 0–0 · Flamengo 52%, draw 33%, Fluminense 15%45+2' · 0–0 · Flamengo 51%, draw 34%, Fluminense 15%45+3' · 0–0 · Flamengo 51%, draw 34%, Fluminense 15%45+4' · 0–0 · Flamengo 51%, draw 35%, Fluminense 15%45+5' · 0–0 · Flamengo 51%, draw 35%, Fluminense 15%HT · 0–0 · Flamengo 51%, draw 35%, Fluminense 15%46' · 0–0 · Flamengo 50%, draw 35%, Fluminense 15%47' · 0–0 · Flamengo 50%, draw 35%, Fluminense 15%48' · 0–0 · Flamengo 50%, draw 35%, Fluminense 15%49' · 0–0 · Flamengo 49%, draw 36%, Fluminense 15%50' · 0–0 · Flamengo 48%, draw 37%, Fluminense 15%51' · 0–0 · Flamengo 48%, draw 37%, Fluminense 15%52' · 0–0 · Flamengo 47%, draw 38%, Fluminense 15%53' · 0–0 · Flamengo 47%, draw 38%, Fluminense 15%54' · 0–0 · Flamengo 46%, draw 39%, Fluminense 15%55' · 0–0 · Flamengo 45%, draw 40%, Fluminense 15%56' · 0–0 · Flamengo 45%, draw 41%, Fluminense 15%57' · 0–0 · Flamengo 44%, draw 41%, Fluminense 15%58' · 0–0 · Flamengo 43%, draw 42%, Fluminense 15%59' · 0–0 · Flamengo 43%, draw 43%, Fluminense 15%60' · 0–0 · Flamengo 42%, draw 44%, Fluminense 14%61' · 0–0 · Flamengo 41%, draw 44%, Fluminense 14%62' · 0–0 · Flamengo 40%, draw 45%, Fluminense 14%63' · 0–0 · Flamengo 40%, draw 46%, Fluminense 14%64' · 0–0 · Flamengo 39%, draw 47%, Fluminense 14%65' · 0–0 · Flamengo 38%, draw 48%, Fluminense 14%66' · 1–0 · Flamengo 86%, draw 12%, Fluminense 2%67' · 1–0 · Flamengo 86%, draw 12%, Fluminense 2%68' · 1–0 · Flamengo 86%, draw 12%, Fluminense 2%69' · 1–0 · Flamengo 86%, draw 12%, Fluminense 2%70' · 1–0 · Flamengo 87%, draw 12%, Fluminense 2%71' · 1–0 · Flamengo 87%, draw 12%, Fluminense 1%72' · 1–0 · Flamengo 87%, draw 12%, Fluminense 1%73' · 1–0 · Flamengo 87%, draw 12%, Fluminense 1%74' · 1–0 · Flamengo 87%, draw 11%, Fluminense 1%75' · 1–0 · Flamengo 88%, draw 11%, Fluminense 1%76' · 1–0 · Flamengo 88%, draw 11%, Fluminense 1%77' · 1–0 · Flamengo 88%, draw 11%, Fluminense 1%78' · 1–0 · Flamengo 89%, draw 10%, Fluminense 1%79' · 1–0 · Flamengo 89%, draw 10%, Fluminense 1%80' · 1–0 · Flamengo 89%, draw 10%, Fluminense 1%81' · 1–0 · Flamengo 90%, draw 10%, Fluminense 1%82' · 1–0 · Flamengo 90%, draw 9%, Fluminense 1%83' · 1–0 · Flamengo 90%, draw 9%, Fluminense 1%84' · 1–0 · Flamengo 91%, draw 9%, Fluminense 1%85' · 1–0 · Flamengo 91%, draw 8%, Fluminense 0%86' · 1–0 · Flamengo 92%, draw 8%, Fluminense 0%87' · 1–0 · Flamengo 92%, draw 7%, Fluminense 0%88' · 1–0 · Flamengo 93%, draw 7%, Fluminense 0%89' · 1–0 · Flamengo 94%, draw 6%, Fluminense 0%90' · 1–0 · Flamengo 94%, draw 6%, Fluminense 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Flamengo 95%, draw 5%, Fluminense 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Flamengo 96%, draw 4%, Fluminense 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Flamengo 97%, draw 3%, Fluminense 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Flamengo 98%, draw 2%, Fluminense 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Flamengo 98%, draw 2%, Fluminense 0%90+6' · 1–0 · Flamengo 99%, draw 1%, Fluminense 0%90+7' · 1–0 · Flamengo 100%, draw 0%, Fluminense 0%90+8' · 1–0 · Flamengo 100%, draw 0%, Fluminense 0%90+9' · 1–0 · Flamengo 100%, draw 0%, Fluminense 0%

Last reading, 90+9': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Flamengo 66% to win: they did.

  1. 31'Flamengo:Erick Pulgar 2185 +14
  2. 39'Fluminense:Luciano Acosta 1978 −5
  3. 49'Flamengo:Saúl Ñíguez 2021 +3
  4. 57'Fluminense:Agustín Canobbio 2056 −10*
  5. 60'Fluminense:Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima 1690 −10 for Luciano Acosta 1978 −5
  6. 60'Fluminense:Kevin Serna 2123 −3 for Yeferson Soteldo 1956 −9*
  7. 64'Flamengo:Bruno Henrique 1946 −4 for Pedro 2281 +2
  8. 64'Flamengo:Joaquín Freitas 1694 −3* for Saúl Ñíguez 2021 +3
  9. 65'Flamengo:Jorge Carrascal 2222 +15 assist Lucas Paquetá 2286 +11
  10. 69'Fluminense:Hulk 1768 −15 for Rodrigo Castillo 1898 −1
  11. 69'Fluminense:Jefferson David Savarino Quintero 2059 −2 for Agustín Canobbio 2056 −10*
  12. 78'Fluminense:Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado – for Matheus Martinelli Lima 2148 −12
  13. 79'Flamengo:Nicolas De la Cruz 2104 −7* for Samuel Lino 2334 +6
  14. 79'Flamengo:Gonzalo Plata 2365 0 for Lucas Paquetá 2286 +11
  15. 83'Fluminense:Ignácio da Silva Oliveira 2014 −11*
  16. 87'Fluminense:Guilherme Arana 1998 −2
  17. 90'Flamengo:Danilo Luiz da Silva 1960 −7 for Jorge Carrascal 2222 +15
  18. 90+5'Flamengo:Joaquín Freitas 1694 −3*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GA. Rossi2351+10
DG. Varela2162+7*
DLéo Ortiz2324+2*
DLéo Pereira2332+9
DAlex Sandro2016+20
ME. Pulgar2185+14
MSaúl2021+3
MJ. Carrascal2222+15
MLucas Paquetá2286+11
MSamuel Lino2334+6
FPedro2281+2
CLeonardo Jardim2181+13
GFábio1719−20
DSamuel Xavier1820−8
DIgnacio2014−11*
DJ. Millán1980−2
DGuilherme Arana1998−2
MNonato2055−11*
MMartinelli2148−12
MA. Canobbio2056−10*
ML. Acosta1978−5
MY. Soteldo1956−9*
FR. Castillo1898−1
CMarcão19120
Before kick-off: 66% · 21% · 13%(Flamengo · draw · Fluminense)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (12%); the result 1–0 had 10%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Flamengo €10.2M, Fluminense €4.3M.
  • Flamengo were without 4 expected starters: Léo Ortiz (2322), Ayrton Lucas (2277), G. Varela (2156) and Jorginho (2158).
  • Draw chance was 19%, below the Série A average of 26% this round.
  • Série A: A. Rossi was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2342).
  • All 11 of Flamengo's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Flamengo

1st in Série A · 61 pts from 29

  • 8 OctDSantos 2220
  • 20 SepWRB Bragantino 2236
  • 18 SepDIndependiente del Valle 2243
  • 13 SepWCorinthians 2251
  • 11 SepWIndependiente del Valle 2222

Fluminense

3rd in Série A · 51 pts from 29

  • 9 OctWCoritiba 1954
  • 20 SepWCorinthians 1927
  • 15 SepLPlatense 1925
  • 12 SepLAtletico-MG 1908
  • 8 SepWPlatense 1907

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Flamengo61 /2979.770%100%0%1st
Fluminense51 /2964.20%75%0%3rd
Flamengo
Fluminense

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Léo Pereira
Léo Pereira

Flamengo · +4.8 (Good) · Elo 2323

Martinelli
Martinelli

Fluminense · +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2159

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

José Leonardo Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Marco Aurélio de Oliveira

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Flamengo: possession-based (how José Leonardo Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim plays) · Fluminense: possession-based (how Marco Aurélio de Oliveira plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.