Serie A · Regular Season - 35
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense
Wed 18 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Flamengo host Atletico Paranaense on Wed 18 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Flamengo 78%, draw 14%, Atletico Paranaense 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Flamengo €11.8M, Atletico Paranaense €1.7M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Série A matchday 35: 393 points.
- Draw chance 14%, below the Série A average of 25% this round.
- Série A: A. Rossi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2370).
- Flamengo's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Flamengo goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- 1–17%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Flamengo 2275 · Atletico Paranaense 1882
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Flamengo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.4 (Good) · Elo 2365
Atletico Paranaense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2002
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Flamengo
1st in Série A · 73 pts from 33
- 29 OctWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A2287
- 26 OctWAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A2250
- 23 OctDEstudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores2259
- 18 OctWBahia Brazil Serie A2260
- 16 OctDEstudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores2202
Atletico Paranaense
5th in Série A · 54 pts from 33
- 30 OctLGremio Brazil Serie A1873
- 24 OctDVitoria Brazil Serie A1875
- 17 OctLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1908
- 12 OctWChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1897
- 8 OctDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1919
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 73 /33 | 84.0 | 88% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Atletico Paranaense | 54 /33 | 60.7 | 0% | 36% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Flamengo: possession-based (how Leonardo Jardim plays) · Atletico Paranaense: balanced profile (how Odair Hellmann plays)