Serie A · Regular Season - 32
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Flamengo host Atletico-MG on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Flamengo 70%, draw 19%, Atletico-MG 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Flamengo €11.4M, Atletico-MG €3.1M.
- Draw chance 19%, below the Série A average of 26% this round.
- Série A: A. Rossi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2368).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Série A): Flamengo rank #3 of 20, Atletico-MG #20.
- Flamengo's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Flamengo goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Flamengo 2263 · Atletico-MG 1993
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Flamengo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.1 (Good) · Elo 2338
Atletico-MG · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.7 (Good) · Elo 2080
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Flamengo
1st in Série A · 67 pts from 31
- 18 OctWBahia Brazil Serie A2262
- 16 OctDEstudiantes L.P. Copa Libertadores2201
- 11 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A2213
- 8 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A2220
- 20 SepWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2236
Atletico-MG
6th in Série A · 50 pts from 31
- 17 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1946
- 14 OctWAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2046
- 11 OctWSantos Brazil Serie A1978
- 8 OctDAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2031
- 3 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2024
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 67 /31 | 81.9 | 70% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Atletico-MG | 50 /31 | 59.7 | 0% | 25% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Flamengo: possession-based (how José Leonardo Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim plays) · Atletico-MG: possession-based (how Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez plays)