Premier League · Regular Season - 28
FK Tobol Kostanay 2–1 FC Astana
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC · Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
FK Tobol KostanayTeam 1570FC AstanaTeam 1646- A. Talal 28'
- V. Lisakovich 61'
- K. Bartolec 52'
We gave FC Astana 36% to win: FK Tobol Kostanay won.
- A. Talal – assist L. Guerra –28'FK Tobol Kostanay:A. Talal – assist L. Guerra –
- 45+2'D. Marat –FC Astana:D. Marat –
- 52'K. Bartolec – assist D. Marat –FC Astana:K. Bartolec – assist D. Marat –
- 56'A. Merkel – for A. Kasym –FC Astana:A. Merkel – for A. Kasym –
- 56'B. Islamkhan – for D. Karaman –FC Astana:B. Islamkhan – for D. Karaman –
- 56'R. Karimov – for N. Buric –FC Astana:R. Karimov – for N. Buric –
- 59'R. Karimov –FC Astana:R. Karimov –
- V. Lisakovich – for Z. Zhumashev –59'FK Tobol Kostanay:V. Lisakovich – for Z. Zhumashev –
- U. Milovanovic – for D. Zhumat –59'FK Tobol Kostanay:U. Milovanovic – for D. Zhumat –
- V. Lisakovich – assist A. Talal –61'FK Tobol Kostanay:V. Lisakovich – assist A. Talal –
- 66'S. Basmanov – for D. Marat –FC Astana:S. Basmanov – for D. Marat –
- A. Cisse – for N. Zhagorov –72'FK Tobol Kostanay:A. Cisse – for N. Zhagorov –
- L. Guerra –79'FK Tobol Kostanay:L. Guerra –
- 80'S. Basmanov –FC Astana:S. Basmanov –
- 85'M. Abrayev – for A. Beysebekov –FC Astana:M. Abrayev – for A. Beysebekov –
- N. Cavnic – for A. Tagybergen –90'FK Tobol Kostanay:N. Cavnic – for A. Tagybergen –
- 90+8'Y. Vorogovskiy –FC Astana:Y. Vorogovskiy –
Before kick-off (provisional): 35% · 29% · 36%(FK Tobol Kostanay · draw · FC Astana)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–1 had 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FK Tobol Kostanay €381K, FC Astana €669K.
- Premier League: V. Lisakovich was the highest-rated forward (1719).
- Premier League: I. Bašić was the highest-rated midfielder (2034).
- All 11 of FK Tobol Kostanay's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FK Tobol Kostanay
7th in Premier League · 34 pts from 26
- 17 SepLYelimay Semey Kazakhstan Premier League1560
- 13 SepWKairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League1537
- 6 SepWUlytau Kazakhstan Premier League1520
- 30 AugLKaspiy Kazakhstan Premier League1538
- 25 AugWKaisar Kazakhstan Premier League1496
FC Astana
3rd in Premier League · 45 pts from 24
- 17 SepWKairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League1628
- 12 SepLOrdabasy Kazakhstan Premier League1620
- 6 SepWYelimay Semey Kazakhstan Premier League1620
- 30 AugWAtyrau Kazakhstan Premier League1604
- 16 AugDKyzyl-Zhar Kazakhstan Premier League1606
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 34 /26 | 40.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7th |
| FC Astana | 45 /24 | 54.4 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FK Tobol Kostanay · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 (Poor) · Elo 1719
FC Astana · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2034
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –