Super Liga · Regular Season - 16
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnik Surdulica
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade
FK Crvena Zvezda host Radnik Surdulica on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Super Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FK Crvena Zvezda 70%, draw 19%, Radnik Surdulica 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FK Crvena Zvezda €3.2M, Radnik Surdulica €487K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Super Liga matchday 16: 350 points.
- Draw chance 19%, below the Super Liga average of 25% this round.
- Super Liga: Matheus is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2049).
- Style contrast in possession (Super Liga): FK Crvena Zvezda rank #1 of 17, Radnik Surdulica #14.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FK Crvena Zvezda goals first.
- 2–012%
- 1–011%
- 2–110%
- 3–09%
- 1–19%
- 3–17%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: FK Crvena Zvezda 1930 · Radnik Surdulica 1580
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FK Crvena Zvezda · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2016
Radnik Surdulica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1560
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FK Crvena Zvezda
1st in Super Liga · 43 pts from 15
- 8 NovWVojvodina Serbian Super Liga1890
- 5 NovWInter Club d'Escaldes UEFA Conference League1917
- 31 OctWMacva Serbian Super Liga1933
- 25 OctWOFK Beograd Serbian Super Liga1900
- 22 OctDFC Copenhagen UEFA Conference League1935
Radnik Surdulica
6th in Super Liga · 23 pts from 15
- 8 NovWOFK Beograd Serbian Super Liga1612
- 2 NovWMladost Lucani Serbian Super Liga1593
- 23 OctLRadnicki 1923 Serbian Super Liga1568
- 16 OctWRadnicki NIS Serbian Super Liga1461
- 10 OctLIMT Novi Beograd Serbian Super Liga1485
Season outlook
From the Super Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 43 /15 | 67.7 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Radnik Surdulica | 23 /15 | 37.7 | 0% | 24% | <1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FK Crvena Zvezda: shot-heavy · creative (how Riera plays) · Radnik Surdulica: balanced profile (how Zoran Rendulic plays)