UEFA Nations League · League C - 6
Finland vs San Marino
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Finland host San Marino on Sun 15 Nov 2026 (UEFA Nations League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Finland 99%, draw 1%, San Marino 0%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Finland €2.2M, San Marino €129K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of UEFA Nations League C, matchday 6: 1212 points.
- Draw chance 1%, below the UEFA Nations League average of 24% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Finland goals first.
- 6–015%
- 7–015%
- 5–014%
- 4–010%
- 6–17%
- 7–17%
- Other scores32%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl6–0expected 6.8 pts
Team Elo: Finland 1896 · San Marino 684
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each team's last 4 UEFA Nations League matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Finland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2136
San Marino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 546
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile