Veikkausliiga · Relegation Group - 27
FF Jaro 1–1 Mariehamn
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC · Project Liv Arena, Jakobstad
FF JaroTeam 1246MariehamnTeam 1294- Ville Vuorinen 64'
- Gergő Kocsis 79' (og)
We gave FF Jaro 39% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 1'Tuomas Koivisto –Mariehamn:Tuomas Koivisto –
- Ville Vuorinen – assist Fabian Ostigard Ness –64'FF Jaro:Ville Vuorinen – assist Fabian Ostigard Ness –
- 69'Sebastian Dahlström – for Viktor Widlund –Mariehamn:Sebastian Dahlström – for Viktor Widlund –
- 69'Jelle van der Heyden – for Adam Larsson –Mariehamn:Jelle van der Heyden – for Adam Larsson –
- Adam Vidjeskog – for Kaius Hardén –75'FF Jaro:Adam Vidjeskog – for Kaius Hardén –
- 79'Gergő Kocsis – (own goal)Mariehamn:Gergő Kocsis – (own goal)
- Joni Remesaho – for Ville Vuorinen –84'FF Jaro:Joni Remesaho – for Ville Vuorinen –
- Linus Zetterstrom – for Jonathan Lawson84'FF Jaro:Linus Zetterstrom – for Jonathan Lawson
- Valde Löfs – for Jim Myrevik –84'FF Jaro:Valde Löfs – for Jim Myrevik –
Before kick-off (provisional): 39% · 29% · 32%(FF Jaro · draw · Mariehamn)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: FF Jaro €121K, Mariehamn €149K.
- Home advantage made FF Jaro the favourite: it added 8 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FF Jaro
11th in Veikkausliiga · 15 pts from 22
- 10 OctWTurku PS Finland Veikkausliiga1194
- 18 SepDLahti Finland Veikkausliiga1197
- 12 SepDSJK Finland Veikkausliiga1195
- 8 SepLIlves Finland Veikkausliiga1177
- 31 AugLMariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga1187
Mariehamn
12th in Veikkausliiga · 14 pts from 22
- 10 OctDIlves Finland Veikkausliiga1235
- 18 SepLSJK Finland Veikkausliiga1210
- 12 SepWTurku PS Finland Veikkausliiga1273
- 8 SepLLahti Finland Veikkausliiga1225
- 31 AugWFF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga1249
Season outlook
From the Veikkausliiga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF Jaro | 20 /26 | 21.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 11th |
| Mariehamn | 18 /26 | 19.2 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FF Jaro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1268
Mariehamn · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.7 (Below) · Elo 1384
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: low-volume · direct