NB I · Regular Season - 11
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Groupama Arena, Budapest
Ferencvarosi TC host MTK Budapest on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (NB I); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Ferencvarosi TC 71%, draw 18%, MTK Budapest 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Ferencvarosi TC €1.5M, MTK Budapest €388K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of NB I matchday 11: 360 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the NB I average of 25% this round.
- NB I: T. Raemaekers is the highest-rated defender (2041).
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Ferencvarosi TC goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–18%
- 1–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Ferencvarosi TC 1901 · MTK Budapest 1541
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Ferencvarosi TC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2041
MTK Budapest · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1633
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Ferencvarosi TC
5th in NB I · 14 pts from 9
- 18 OctDKisvarda FC NB I1903
- 15 OctWPlzen UEFA Europa League1932
- 10 OctDDebreceni VSC NB I1920
- 20 SepDNyiregyhaza NB I1906
- 17 SepWCeltic UEFA Europa League1855
MTK Budapest
8th in NB I · 12 pts from 10
- 16 OctWVasas NB I1576
- 10 OctLPaks NB I1544
- 20 SepLGyori ETO FC NB I1569
- 5 SepLKisvarda FC NB I1611
- 28 AugDDebreceni VSC NB I1559
Season outlook
From the NB I simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 14 /9 | 66.4 | 77% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| MTK Budapest | 12 /10 | 39.5 | 0% | 5% | 28% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Ferencvarosi TC: possession-based (how Balazs Borbely plays) · MTK Budapest: possession-based (how Mate Pinezits plays)