Süper Lig · Regular Season - 10
Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Fenerbahçe host Göztepe on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Süper Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fenerbahçe 77%, draw 15%, Göztepe 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fenerbahçe €9.8M, Göztepe €1.7M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Süper Lig matchday 10: 426 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the Süper Lig average of 26% this round.
- Süper Lig: Ederson is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2421).
- Fenerbahçe's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fenerbahçe goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–17%
- 1–07%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Fenerbahçe 2266 · Göztepe 1840
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fenerbahçe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2335
Göztepe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1963
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fenerbahçe
3rd in Süper Lig · 16 pts from 8
- 17 OctWAlanyaspor Turkey Super Lig2236
- 14 OctLAston Villa UEFA Champions League2267
- 10 OctWRizespor Turkey Super Lig2289
- 20 SepWEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig2257
- 14 SepDGaziantep FK Turkey Super Lig2301
Göztepe
13th in Süper Lig · 9 pts from 8
- 18 OctWKocaelispor Turkey Super Lig1857
- 12 OctWEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig1851
- 20 SepDRizespor Turkey Super Lig1770
- 12 SepDAlanyaspor Turkey Super Lig1760
- 7 SepLGaziantep FK Turkey Super Lig1823
Season outlook
From the Süper Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 16 /8 | 70.7 | 34% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
| Göztepe | 9 /8 | 38.6 | 0% | <1% | 20% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fenerbahçe: shot-heavy · creative (how İsmail Kartal plays) · Göztepe: direct · high-pressing (how Stanimir Kolev Stoilov plays)