Süper Lig · Regular Season - 8
Fenerbahçe 3–0 Alanyaspor
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Chobani Stadium, Istanbul
FenerbahçeTeam 2271
AlanyasporTeam 1816Match story
Fenerbahçe · draw · AlanyasporBefore kick-off: 78% · 14% · 7%
Last reading, 90+3': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- R. Lukaku 40'
- K. Akturkoglu 71'
- V. Muriqi 87'
We gave Fenerbahçe 78% to win: they did.
- M. Greenwood 2327 +9 (penalty missed) assist M. Greenwood 2327 +917'
Fenerbahçe:M. Greenwood 2327 +9 (penalty missed) assist M. Greenwood 2327 +9 - R. Lukaku 2135 +2 assist L. Mercan 2173 +8*40'
Fenerbahçe:R. Lukaku 2135 +2 assist L. Mercan 2173 +8* - 60'I. Hagi 1899 −2 for I. Kaya 1780 −1
Alanyaspor:I. Hagi 1899 −2 for I. Kaya 1780 −1 - 60'M. Elia 1807 −2 for Hwang Ui-Jo 1681 −6
Alanyaspor:M. Elia 1807 −2 for Hwang Ui-Jo 1681 −6 - K. Akturkoglu 2335 +2 for M. Greenwood 2327 +967'
Fenerbahçe:K. Akturkoglu 2335 +2 for M. Greenwood 2327 +9 - K. Akturkoglu 2335 +271'
Fenerbahçe:K. Akturkoglu 2335 +2 - O. Aydin 2238 +573'
Fenerbahçe:O. Aydin 2238 +5 - 74'O. Ben Ali 1252 −8* for A. Usluoglu 1601 0
Alanyaspor:O. Ben Ali 1252 −8* for A. Usluoglu 1601 0 - 74'E. Keskin 1801 −8* for Ruan 1859 −2
Alanyaspor:E. Keskin 1801 −8* for Ruan 1859 −2 - M. Yandas 1953 −8* for I. Kahveci 2020 +1877'
Fenerbahçe:M. Yandas 1953 −8* for I. Kahveci 2020 +18 - A. Brown 2347 +2 for L. Mercan 2173 +8*77'
Fenerbahçe:A. Brown 2347 +2 for L. Mercan 2173 +8* - D. Nene 2237 +1 for O. Aydin 2238 +581'
Fenerbahçe:D. Nene 2237 +1 for O. Aydin 2238 +5 - V. Muriqi 2140 −2 for R. Lukaku 2135 +281'
Fenerbahçe:V. Muriqi 2140 −2 for R. Lukaku 2135 +2 - V. Muriqi 2140 −2 assist K. Akturkoglu 2335 +287'
Fenerbahçe:V. Muriqi 2140 −2 assist K. Akturkoglu 2335 +2 - 90+1'Maestro 1788 −8* for B. Gezek 1913 −8
Alanyaspor:Maestro 1788 −8* for B. Gezek 1913 −8
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 78% · 14% · 7%(Fenerbahçe · draw · Alanyaspor)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 3–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Fenerbahçe €8.7M, Alanyaspor €1.1M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Süper Lig matchday 8: 436 points.
- Draw chance was 15%, below the Süper Lig average of 26% this round.
- Süper Lig: Ederson was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2414).
- Style contrast in attacking (Süper Lig): Fenerbahçe ranked #2 of 18, Alanyaspor #17.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fenerbahçe
4th in Süper Lig · 13 pts from 7
- 14 OctLAston Villa UEFA Champions League2267
- 10 OctWRizespor Turkey Super Lig2289
- 20 SepWEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig2257
- 14 SepDGaziantep FK Turkey Super Lig2301
- 10 SepDAS Roma UEFA Champions League2259
Alanyaspor
7th in Süper Lig · 12 pts from 7
- 10 OctDErzurumspor FK Turkey Super Lig1860
- 19 SepWÇorum FK Turkey Super Lig1845
- 12 SepDGöztepe Turkey Super Lig1815
- 7 SepWRizespor Turkey Super Lig1849
- 30 AugLEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig1831
Season outlook
From the Süper Lig simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 13 /7 | 70.2 | 34% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
| Alanyaspor | 12 /7 | 42.6 | 0% | 1% | 9% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Fenerbahçe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.5 (Good) · Elo 2327

Alanyaspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1881
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fenerbahçe: shot-heavy · creative (how İsmail Kartal plays) · Alanyaspor: possession-based (how Joao Pereira plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.