Liga I · Regular Season - 11
FCSB 1–0 Oţelul
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Arena Națională, Bucharest
FCSBTeam 1610OţelulTeam 1514- Alexandru Stoian 65'
We gave FCSB 46% to win: they did.
- 3'Habib Sylla 1540 −8*Oţelul:Habib Sylla 1540 −8*
- Ofri Arad 1609 −1*14'FCSB:Ofri Arad 1609 −1*
- Valentin Crețu 1590 +17*45'FCSB:Valentin Crețu 1590 +17*
- 47'Denis Bordun 1432 −8*Oţelul:Denis Bordun 1432 −8*
- 54'Habib Sylla 1540 −8*Oţelul:Habib Sylla 1540 −8*
- 54'Dominick Zator 1446 −11* for Ze Turbo 1408 −9*Oţelul:Dominick Zator 1446 −11* for Ze Turbo 1408 −9*
- 54'Alexandru Viorel Bălănică 1303 −8* for Denis Bordun 1432 −8*Oţelul:Alexandru Viorel Bălănică 1303 −8* for Denis Bordun 1432 −8*
- Joao Paulo Fernandes 1686 −6* for Ofri Arad 1609 −1*56'FCSB:Joao Paulo Fernandes 1686 −6* for Ofri Arad 1609 −1*
- Alexandru Stoian 1343 +16* for Paul Arnold Garita 1585 −2*57'FCSB:Alexandru Stoian 1343 +16* for Paul Arnold Garita 1585 −2*
- 59'Giannis Christopoulos 1581 −9*Oţelul:Giannis Christopoulos 1581 −9*
- Alexandru Stoian 1343 +16* assist Valentin Crețu 1590 +17*65'FCSB:Alexandru Stoian 1343 +16* assist Valentin Crețu 1590 +17*
- Dennis Politic 1592 −6* for Meriton Korenica 1730 +1578'FCSB:Dennis Politic 1592 −6* for Meriton Korenica 1730 +15
- Eddy Gnahoré 1599 −11* for Juri Cisotti 1639 −4*78'FCSB:Eddy Gnahoré 1599 −11* for Juri Cisotti 1639 −4*
- 80'João Paulino 1403 −8* for Andrei Ciobanu 1511 −9*Oţelul:João Paulino 1403 −8* for Andrei Ciobanu 1511 −9*
- 90+1'Dan Cristian Neicu 1234 −8* for Pedro Nuno 1552 −11*Oţelul:Dan Cristian Neicu 1234 −8* for Pedro Nuno 1552 −11*
- 90+1'Dragos Andrei Aftene 1284 −8* for Rafael Brito 1712 −19*Oţelul:Dragos Andrei Aftene 1284 −8* for Rafael Brito 1712 −19*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 46% · 28% · 26%(FCSB · draw · Oţelul)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: FCSB €733K, Oţelul €407K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FCSB
11th in Liga I · 12 pts from 10
- 19 SepLUniversitatea Craiova Liga I1658
- 14 SepDPetrolul Ploiesti Liga I1647
- 5 SepLDinamo Bucuresti Liga I1653
- 30 AugLUta Arad Liga I1633
- 23 AugLCFR 1907 Cluj Liga I1651
Oţelul
14th in Liga I · 10 pts from 10
- 21 SepLCorvinul Hunedoara Liga I1566
- 14 SepLUniversitatea Cluj Liga I1525
- 6 SepLRapid Liga I1553
- 28 AugDFC Voluntari Liga I1558
- 24 AugWArges Pitesti Liga I1534
Season outlook
From the Liga I simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB | 12 /10 | 42.8 | <1% | 13% | 2% | 6th |
| Oţelul | 10 /10 | 36.6 | 0% | 2% | 16% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FCSB · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1573
Oţelul · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1520
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FCSB: creative (how Marius Achim Baciu plays) · Oţelul: balanced profile (how Stjepan Tomas plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.