Super League · Regular Season - 10
FC Zurich 4–2 FC Thun
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Letzigrund, Zurich
FC ZurichTeam 1643FC ThunTeam 1663- Kevin Spadanuda 30'
- Bledian Krasniqi 37'
- Doron Lichtenstein 64'
- Philippe Paulin Keny 77'
- Simon Lengen 16'
- Dorian Derbaci 90'
We gave FC Zurich 40% to win: they did.
- 16'Simon Lengen –FC Thun:Simon Lengen –
- Kevin Spadanuda – assist Umeh Emmanuel –30'FC Zurich:Kevin Spadanuda – assist Umeh Emmanuel –
- Bledian Krasniqi –37'FC Zurich:Bledian Krasniqi –
- 40'A. Ilic –FC Thun:A. Ilic –
- 56'Simon Lengen –FC Thun:Simon Lengen –
- 57'Noah Christoffersson – for Simon Lengen –FC Thun:Noah Christoffersson – for Simon Lengen –
- 57'Nils·Reichmuth – for A. Ilic –FC Thun:Nils·Reichmuth – for A. Ilic –
- Doron Lichtenstein assist Kevin Spadanuda –64'FC Zurich:Doron Lichtenstein assist Kevin Spadanuda –
- 67'Jan Bamert –FC Thun:Jan Bamert –
- 73'Riccardo Braschi – for Furkan Dursun –FC Thun:Riccardo Braschi – for Furkan Dursun –
- 73'Dorian Derbaci – for Nico Maier –FC Thun:Dorian Derbaci – for Nico Maier –
- Philippe Paulin Keny – assist Doron Lichtenstein77'FC Zurich:Philippe Paulin Keny – assist Doron Lichtenstein
- Nevio Emanuele Di Giusto – for Miguel Reichmuth –78'FC Zurich:Nevio Emanuele Di Giusto – for Miguel Reichmuth –
- 82'Louis Immanuel Passavant – for Nassim Zoukit –FC Thun:Louis Immanuel Passavant – for Nassim Zoukit –
- Mohamed Bangoura – for Kevin Spadanuda –85'FC Zurich:Mohamed Bangoura – for Kevin Spadanuda –
- Jill Stiel – for Bledian Krasniqi –85'FC Zurich:Jill Stiel – for Bledian Krasniqi –
- Din Ramić – for Philippe Paulin Keny –85'FC Zurich:Din Ramić – for Philippe Paulin Keny –
- Jorge Segura – for Leandro Schödler –87'FC Zurich:Jorge Segura – for Leandro Schödler –
- 90'Dorian Derbaci – assist Fabio Fehr –FC Thun:Dorian Derbaci – assist Fabio Fehr –
Before kick-off (provisional): 40% · 29% · 31%(FC Zurich · draw · FC Thun)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–2 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Zurich €781K, FC Thun €1.0M.
- Home advantage made FC Zurich the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Super League): FC Zurich ranked #1 of 12, FC Thun #11.
- FC Thun's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.2 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Zurich
7th in Super League · 11 pts from 9
- 19 SepDFC Sion Swiss Super League1654
- 13 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1630
- 5 SepDGrasshoppers Swiss Super League1637
- 29 AugWLausanne Swiss Super League1607
- 22 AugLFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League1605
FC Thun
9th in Super League · 10 pts from 9
- 20 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1664
- 16 SepLServette FC Swiss Super League1664
- 12 SepLGrasshoppers Swiss Super League1679
- 6 SepLFC Sion Swiss Super League1674
- 2 SepDLausanne Swiss Super League1703
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Zurich | 11 /9 | 26.0 | 0% | 3% | 24% | 8th |
| FC Thun | 10 /9 | 25.1 | 0% | 2% | 31% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Zurich · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1676
FC Thun · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.3 (Average) · Elo 1827
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Zurich: dribble-heavy (how Marcel Koller plays) · FC Thun: direct (how Luca Privitelli Gian plays)