Super League · Regular Season - 11
FC Zurich vs FC Luzern
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Letzigrund Stadion
FC Zurich host FC Luzern on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Zurich 42%, draw 29%, FC Luzern 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Zurich €823K, FC Luzern €732K.
- Home advantage makes FC Zurich the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Super League): FC Zurich rank #12 of 12, FC Luzern #3.
- FC Zurich are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Zurich goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC Zurich 1662 · FC Luzern 1664
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Zurich · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1766
FC Luzern · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1803
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Zurich
5th in Super League · 14 pts from 10
- 10 OctWFC Thun Swiss Super League1662
- 19 SepDFC Sion Swiss Super League1654
- 13 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1630
- 5 SepDGrasshoppers Swiss Super League1637
- 29 AugWLausanne Swiss Super League1607
FC Luzern
8th in Super League · 12 pts from 10
- 10 OctLFC Lugano Swiss Super League1670
- 19 SepWGrasshoppers Swiss Super League1632
- 13 SepLFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League1638
- 5 SepDBSC Young Boys Swiss Super League1637
- 2 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1602
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Zurich | 14 /10 | 28.0 | 0% | 7% | 11% | 7th |
| FC Luzern | 12 /10 | 26.0 | 0% | 4% | 21% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Zurich: dribble-heavy (how Marcel Koller plays) · FC Luzern: balanced profile (how Jörg Portmann plays)