Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
FC Volendam 2–0 Vitesse
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Kras Stadion, Volendam
FC VolendamTeam 1590VitesseTeam 1542We gave FC Volendam 46% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 46% · 27% · 28%(FC Volendam · draw · Vitesse)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–0 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: FC Volendam €475K, Vitesse €330K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Eerste Divisie): FC Volendam ranked #1 of 20, Vitesse #17.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Volendam
11th in Eerste Divisie · 12 pts from 9
- 3 OctLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1667
- 26 SepWVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1642
- 18 SepLJong AZ Netherlands Eerste Divisie1652
- 13 SepWDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1653
- 4 SepLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1649
Vitesse
8th in Eerste Divisie · 14 pts from 9
- 3 OctDNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1638
- 26 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1637
- 19 SepWJong PSV U21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie1600
- 12 SepLRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1611
- 4 SepWFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1610
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | 12 /9 | 55.3 | 2% | 22% | 2% | 7th |
| Vitesse | 14 /9 | 55.0 | 2% | 20% | 2% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Volendam · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1683
Vitesse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1719
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Volendam: balanced profile (how Erwin van de Looi plays) · Vitesse: balanced profile (how Rüdiger Rehm plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.