Super League · Regular Season - 11
FC Thun vs FC Lugano
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stockhorn Arena, Thun
FC Thun host FC Lugano on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Thun 21%, draw 26%, FC Lugano 54%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Thun €861K, FC Lugano €2.7M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Super League matchday 11: 310 points.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2070).
- Style contrast in possession (Super League): FC Thun rank #11 of 12, FC Lugano #1.
- FC Lugano's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Thun goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–210%
- 0–07%
- 1–36%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FC Thun 1666 · FC Lugano 1976
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Thun · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1794
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Elite) · Elo 2122
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Thun
9th in Super League · 10 pts from 10
- 15 OctLTwente UEFA Conference League1725
- 10 OctLFC Zurich Swiss Super League1638
- 20 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1664
- 16 SepLServette FC Swiss Super League1664
- 12 SepLGrasshoppers Swiss Super League1679
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 28 pts from 10
- 15 OctWFK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Conference League2000
- 10 OctWFC Luzern Swiss Super League1988
- 20 SepWLausanne Swiss Super League1946
- 16 SepWFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League1860
- 12 SepDBSC Young Boys Swiss Super League1949
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 10 /10 | 23.9 | 0% | 1% | 40% | 9th |
| FC Lugano | 28 /10 | 50.7 | 89% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Thun: direct (how Luca Privitelli Gian plays) · FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays)