2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 12
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli host VfL Bochum on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC St. Pauli 38%, draw 29%, VfL Bochum 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC St. Pauli €2.7M, VfL Bochum €1.2M.
- Home advantage makes FC St. Pauli the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in possession (2. Bundesliga): FC St. Pauli rank #2 of 18, VfL Bochum #18.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC St. Pauli goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–19%
- 2–18%
- 0–08%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC St. Pauli 1810 · VfL Bochum 1878
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC St. Pauli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1900
VfL Bochum · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.5 (Average) · Elo 1919
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC St. Pauli
9th in 2. Bundesliga · 12 pts from 11
- 8 NovL1. FC Magdeburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1828
- 1 NovL1. FC Nürnberg Germany 2 Bundesliga1844
- 23 OctDSV Darmstadt 98 Germany 2 Bundesliga1842
- 17 OctDHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1838
- 11 OctWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1813
VfL Bochum
8th in 2. Bundesliga · 14 pts from 11
- 8 NovWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1892
- 30 OctWEnergie Cottbus Germany 2 Bundesliga1847
- 27 OctWFSV Mainz 05 Germany DFB Pokal1817
- 23 OctDVfL Wolfsburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1803
- 17 OctL1. FC Kaiserslautern Germany 2 Bundesliga1812
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | 12 /11 | 44.1 | 0% | 3% | 7% | 10th |
| VfL Bochum | 14 /11 | 49.1 | <1% | 14% | 1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC St. Pauli: balanced profile (how Marcel Rapp plays) · VfL Bochum: direct (how Uwe Rösler plays)