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2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7

FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli Burger

FC St. Pauli crestFC St. PauliTeam 1776
2–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Karlsruher SC crestKarlsruher SCTeam 1707

Match story

FC St. Pauli · draw · Karlsruher SC

Before kick-off: 49% · 27% · 24%

Live chances: FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0% at 90+8'2' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 49%, draw 27%, Karlsruher SC 24%3' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 49%, draw 27%, Karlsruher SC 24%4' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 49%, draw 27%, Karlsruher SC 24%5' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 49%, draw 27%, Karlsruher SC 24%6' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 49%, draw 28%, Karlsruher SC 24%7' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 48%, draw 28%, Karlsruher SC 24%8' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 48%, draw 28%, Karlsruher SC 24%9' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 48%, draw 28%, Karlsruher SC 24%10' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 48%, draw 28%, Karlsruher SC 24%11' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 48%, draw 28%, Karlsruher SC 24%12' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 48%, draw 29%, Karlsruher SC 24%13' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 47%, draw 29%, Karlsruher SC 24%14' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 47%, draw 29%, Karlsruher SC 24%15' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 47%, draw 29%, Karlsruher SC 24%16' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 47%, draw 29%, Karlsruher SC 24%17' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 47%, draw 30%, Karlsruher SC 24%18' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 47%, draw 30%, Karlsruher SC 24%19' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 46%, draw 30%, Karlsruher SC 24%20' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 46%, draw 30%, Karlsruher SC 24%21' · 0–1 · FC St. Pauli 26%, draw 27%, Karlsruher SC 47%22' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 46%, draw 30%, Karlsruher SC 24%23' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 46%, draw 31%, Karlsruher SC 24%24' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 45%, draw 31%, Karlsruher SC 24%25' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 45%, draw 31%, Karlsruher SC 24%26' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 45%, draw 31%, Karlsruher SC 24%27' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 45%, draw 32%, Karlsruher SC 24%28' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 44%, draw 32%, Karlsruher SC 24%29' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 44%, draw 32%, Karlsruher SC 24%30' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 44%, draw 32%, Karlsruher SC 24%31' · 0–0 · FC St. Pauli 44%, draw 33%, Karlsruher SC 24%32' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 7%33' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 7%34' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 7%35' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 7%36' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 7%37' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%38' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%39' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%40' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%41' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%42' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%43' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%44' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%45' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%45+1' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 76%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%45+2' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%45+3' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 6%HT · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 5%47' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 5%48' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 5%49' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 5%50' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 5%51' · 1–0 · FC St. Pauli 77%, draw 18%, Karlsruher SC 5%52' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 96%, draw 4%, Karlsruher SC 1%53' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 96%, draw 4%, Karlsruher SC 1%54' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 96%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 1%55' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 96%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 1%56' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 96%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%57' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 96%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%58' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 96%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%59' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%60' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%61' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%62' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%63' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%64' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 3%, Karlsruher SC 0%65' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%66' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%67' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 97%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%68' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%69' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%70' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%71' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%72' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%73' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%74' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%75' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 2%, Karlsruher SC 0%76' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 98%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%77' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%78' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%79' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%80' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%81' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%82' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%83' · 2–1 · FC St. Pauli 88%, draw 11%, Karlsruher SC 1%84' · 2–1 · FC St. Pauli 88%, draw 11%, Karlsruher SC 1%85' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%86' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 99%, draw 1%, Karlsruher SC 0%87' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%88' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%89' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+1' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+2' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+3' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+4' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+5' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+6' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+7' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%90+8' · 2–0 · FC St. Pauli 100%, draw 0%, Karlsruher SC 0%

Last reading, 90+8': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave FC St. Pauli 49% to win: they did.

  1. 32'FC St. Pauli:Abdoulie Ceesay 1528 +67* assist Connor Metcalfe 1999 +12*
  2. 34'Karlsruher SC:Sandro Tremoulet 1609 −8*
  3. 48'Karlsruher SC:Marvin Wanitzek 1827 −13*
  4. 51'FC St. Pauli:Lars Ritzka 1750 +43* assist Eric Smith 1986 +23
  5. 68'FC St. Pauli:Martijn Kaars 1866 −5* for Youssoupha Niang 1660 +11*
  6. 68'Karlsruher SC:Kevin Wiethaup 1575 −8* for Rafael Pinto Pedrosa 1794 −8*
  7. 70'Karlsruher SC:Jason Ponente-Ramirez 1501 −8* for Viktor Bergh 1726 −8*
  8. 70'Karlsruher SC:Sebastian Jung 1731 −16* for Sandro Tremoulet 1609 −8*
  9. 70'Karlsruher SC:Lilian Egloff 1654 −8* for Louey Ben Farhat 1756 −8*
  10. 73'FC St. Pauli:Ricky-Jade Jones 1715 +3* for Abdoulie Ceesay 1528 +67*
  11. 73'FC St. Pauli:Samuel Klein 1482 −1* for Mathias Rasmussen 1997 −3*
  12. 80'Karlsruher SC:Tim Civeja 1599 −8* for Danyal Hakan Zor 1615 −8*
  13. 82'FC St. Pauli:Adam Dźwigała 1727 −8* for Lars Ritzka 1750 +43*
  14. 82'FC St. Pauli:Branimir Hrgota 1695 −11* for Connor Metcalfe 1999 +12*
  15. 87'FC St. Pauli:Branimir Hrgota 1695 −11*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-1-4-1Formations3-5-2
GB. Voll1590+76*
DA. Pyrka1908+5*
DD. Nemeth1935+24*
DL. Ritzka1750+43*
DL. Oppie1879+18*
ME. Smith1986+23
MY. Niang1660+11*
MC. Metcalfe1999+12*
MM. Rasmussen1997−3*
MJ. Fujita1956+2*
FAbdoulie Ceesay1528+67*
CM. Rapp1882+18*
GH. Bernat1839−8*
DM. Franke1786−12*
DC. Kobald1881−11*
DS. Trémoulet1609−8*
MRafael Pinto Pedrosa1794−8*
MM. Wanitzek1827−13*
MD. H. Zor1615−8*
MV. Bergh1726−8*
MD. Ofli2023−20*
FS. Fukuda1432−8*
FLouey Ben Farhat1756−8*
CM. Senft1724−8*
Before kick-off: 49% · 27% · 24%(FC St. Pauli · draw · Karlsruher SC)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–0 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: FC St. Pauli €2.8M, Karlsruher SC €1.1M.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

FC St. Pauli

10th in 2. Bundesliga · 7 pts from 6

  • 20 SepDEnergie Cottbus 1822
  • 12 SepWVfL Wolfsburg 1790
  • 4 SepDArminia Bielefeld 1821
  • 30 AugL1. FC Kaiserslautern 1825
  • 23 AugLRot-Weiß Essen 1834

Karlsruher SC

17th in 2. Bundesliga · 5 pts from 6

  • 19 SepL1. FC Nürnberg 1759
  • 13 SepLEnergie Cottbus 1753
  • 4 SepDHannover 96 1742
  • 29 AugLVfL Wolfsburg 1751
  • 21 AugWPreußen Münster 1742

Season outlook

From the 2. Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
FC St. Pauli7 /647.61%15%4%7th
Karlsruher SC5 /640.80%2%25%14th
FC St. Pauli
Karlsruher SC

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: 2. Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

D. Nemeth
D. Nemeth

FC St. Pauli · +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1911

M. Wanitzek
M. Wanitzek

Karlsruher SC · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1840

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Marcel Rapp

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Maximilian Senft

Coach DNA: direct

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

FC St. Pauli: balanced profile (how Marcel Rapp plays) · Karlsruher SC: balanced profile (how Maximilian Senft plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.