2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli host 1. FC Nürnberg on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (2. Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC St. Pauli 39%, draw 29%, 1. FC Nürnberg 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC St. Pauli €2.6M, 1. FC Nürnberg €1.8M.
- Home advantage makes FC St. Pauli the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- 2. Bundesliga: J. Fernandez is the highest-rated midfielder (2148).
- Style contrast in dribbling (2. Bundesliga): FC St. Pauli rank #17 of 18, 1. FC Nürnberg #1.
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC St. Pauli goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: FC St. Pauli 1826 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1879
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC St. Pauli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1602
1. FC Nürnberg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 2124
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC St. Pauli
7th in 2. Bundesliga · 11 pts from 8
- 17 OctDHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1846
- 11 OctWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1823
- 20 SepDEnergie Cottbus Germany 2 Bundesliga1822
- 12 SepWVfL Wolfsburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1790
- 4 SepDArminia Bielefeld Germany 2 Bundesliga1821
1. FC Nürnberg
2nd in 2. Bundesliga · 18 pts from 8
- 16 OctDEnergie Cottbus Germany 2 Bundesliga1927
- 10 OctDVfL Wolfsburg Germany 2 Bundesliga1935
- 19 SepWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1933
- 11 SepWHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1908
- 5 SepDHolstein Kiel Germany 2 Bundesliga1916
Season outlook
From the 2. Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | 11 /8 | 48.9 | 2% | 22% | 3% | 6th |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 18 /8 | 59.5 | 25% | 81% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC St. Pauli: balanced profile (how Marcel Rapp plays) · 1. FC Nürnberg: dribble-heavy (how Miroslav Klose plays)