Super League · Regular Season - 13
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Kybunpark, St. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen host FC Lugano on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC ST. Gallen 29%, draw 28%, FC Lugano 42%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC ST. Gallen €1.7M, FC Lugano €3.0M.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2110).
- Style contrast in possession (Super League): FC ST. Gallen rank #10 of 12, FC Lugano #1.
- FC Lugano's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 over 180 days.
- FC Lugano have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC ST. Gallen goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC ST. Gallen 1830 · FC Lugano 2003
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC ST. Gallen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1861
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Elite) · Elo 2155
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC ST. Gallen
4th in Super League · 16 pts from 10
- 11 OctWLausanne Swiss Super League1837
- 20 SepWFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League1817
- 16 SepLFC Lugano Swiss Super League1825
- 12 SepLFC Sion Swiss Super League1823
- 6 SepWServette FC Swiss Super League1862
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 28 pts from 10
- 22 OctWGetafe UEFA Conference League2049
- 15 OctWFK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Conference League2000
- 10 OctWFC Luzern Swiss Super League1988
- 20 SepWLausanne Swiss Super League1946
- 16 SepWFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League1860
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC ST. Gallen | 16 /10 | 34.4 | <1% | 52% | <1% | 4th |
| FC Lugano | 28 /10 | 51.6 | 92% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC ST. Gallen: balanced profile (how Enrico Maaßen plays) · FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays)