First League · Regular Season - 16
FC Sochi vs Ural
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Fisht Olympic Stadium, Sochi
FC Sochi host Ural on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Sochi 47%, draw 28%, Ural 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Sochi €594K, Ural €526K.
- First League: N. Stojić is the highest-rated defender (1833).
- FC Sochi are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Sochi goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC Sochi 1664 · Ural 1628
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Sochi · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Elite) · Elo 1692
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Sochi
2nd in First League · 29 pts from 14
- 16 OctWRotor Volgograd Russia First League1649
- 11 OctWFC UFA Russia First League1635
- 18 SepDSka-khabarovsk Russia First League1633
- 14 SepWVeles Russia First League1664
- 30 AugWChelyabinsk Russia First League1656
Ural
6th in First League · 25 pts from 14
- 18 OctLNizhny Novgorod Russia First League1628
- 10 OctLVeles Russia First League1646
- 26 SepWSpartak Kostroma Russia First League1625
- 18 SepWFK Neftekhimik Russia First League1614
- 14 SepDShinnik Yaroslavl Russia First League1642
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Sochi | 29 /14 | 64.3 | 16% | 90% | 0% | 2nd |
| Ural | 25 /14 | 58.1 | 3% | 63% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct · low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Sochi: low-block (how Igor Osinkin plays) · Ural: direct (how Sergey Yuran plays)