K League 1 · Championship Group - 34
FC Seoul vs Incheon United
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 07:30 UTC · Seoul World Cup Stadium, Seoul
FC Seoul host Incheon United on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (K League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Seoul 53%, draw 26%, Incheon United 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Seoul €649K, Incheon United €252K.
- K League 1: P. Klimala is the highest-rated forward (1800).
- Style contrast in discipline (K League 1): FC Seoul rank #2 of 13, Incheon United #11.
- FC Seoul's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
- Incheon United's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Seoul goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FC Seoul 1730 · Incheon United 1584
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Seoul · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1800
Incheon United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1661
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Seoul
1st in K League 1 · 67 pts from 33
- 24 OctDGangwon FC K League 11735
- 18 OctDGimcheon Sangmu FC K League 11755
- 14 OctLMelbourne Victory AFC Cup1506
- 10 OctWJeju United FC K League 11757
- 20 SepLPohang Steelers K League 11763
Incheon United
6th in K League 1 · 46 pts from 33
- 24 OctWJeju United FC K League 11551
- 18 OctDGangwon FC K League 11557
- 9 OctWPohang Steelers K League 11512
- 27 SepDGangwon FC K League 11499
- 20 SepDDaejeon Citizen K League 11538
Season outlook
From the K League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 67 /33 | 74.7 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Incheon United | 46 /33 | 51.5 | 0% | 15% | <1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Seoul: balanced profile (how Gi-Dong Kim plays) · Incheon United: balanced profile (how Jong-Hwan Yoon plays)