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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6

FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UTC · VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

FC Schalke 04 crestFC Schalke 04Team 1959
0–1
Full time
HT 0–1
FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05Team 2092

Match story

FC Schalke 04 · draw · FSV Mainz 05

Before kick-off: 30% · 28% · 42%

Live chances: FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 0%, FSV Mainz 05 100% at 90+11'2' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 30%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 42%3' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 30%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 42%4' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 42%5' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 42%6' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 42%7' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 42%8' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 41%9' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 41%10' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 29%, FSV Mainz 05 41%11' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 30%, FSV Mainz 05 41%12' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 30%, FSV Mainz 05 41%13' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 30%, FSV Mainz 05 41%14' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 30%, FSV Mainz 05 41%15' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 30%, FSV Mainz 05 41%16' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 30%, FSV Mainz 05 41%17' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 30%, FSV Mainz 05 40%18' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 31%, FSV Mainz 05 40%19' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 31%, FSV Mainz 05 40%20' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 31%, FSV Mainz 05 40%21' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 31%, FSV Mainz 05 40%22' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 31%, FSV Mainz 05 40%24' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 32%, FSV Mainz 05 40%25' · 0–0 · FC Schalke 04 29%, draw 32%, FSV Mainz 05 39%26' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 14%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 63%27' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 14%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 63%28' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 13%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 63%29' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 13%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 63%30' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 13%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%31' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 13%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%32' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 13%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%33' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 13%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%34' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 13%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%35' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 12%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%36' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 12%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%37' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 12%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 64%38' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 12%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 65%39' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 12%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 65%40' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 12%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 65%41' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 12%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 65%42' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 11%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 65%43' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 11%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 65%44' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 11%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 66%45' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 11%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 66%45+1' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 11%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 66%45+3' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 10%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 66%HT · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 10%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 66%47' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 10%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 67%48' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 10%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 67%49' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 10%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 67%50' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 9%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 67%51' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 9%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 68%52' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 9%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 68%53' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 9%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 68%54' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 9%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 68%55' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 8%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 69%57' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 8%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 69%58' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 8%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 70%59' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 7%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 70%60' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 7%, draw 23%, FSV Mainz 05 70%61' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 7%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 71%62' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 7%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 71%63' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 6%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 71%64' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 6%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 72%65' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 6%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 72%66' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 6%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 73%67' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 5%, draw 21%, FSV Mainz 05 73%68' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 5%, draw 21%, FSV Mainz 05 74%69' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 5%, draw 21%, FSV Mainz 05 74%70' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 5%, draw 21%, FSV Mainz 05 75%72' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 4%, draw 20%, FSV Mainz 05 76%73' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 4%, draw 20%, FSV Mainz 05 76%74' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 4%, draw 20%, FSV Mainz 05 77%75' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 4%, draw 19%, FSV Mainz 05 77%77' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 3%, draw 18%, FSV Mainz 05 78%78' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 3%, draw 18%, FSV Mainz 05 79%79' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 3%, draw 17%, FSV Mainz 05 80%80' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 2%, draw 17%, FSV Mainz 05 81%81' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 2%, draw 16%, FSV Mainz 05 81%82' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 2%, draw 16%, FSV Mainz 05 82%83' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 2%, draw 15%, FSV Mainz 05 83%84' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 2%, draw 15%, FSV Mainz 05 84%85' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 1%, draw 14%, FSV Mainz 05 85%86' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 1%, draw 13%, FSV Mainz 05 86%87' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 1%, draw 12%, FSV Mainz 05 87%88' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 1%, draw 11%, FSV Mainz 05 88%89' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 1%, draw 10%, FSV Mainz 05 89%90' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 1%, draw 9%, FSV Mainz 05 90%90+1' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 8%, FSV Mainz 05 91%90+2' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 7%, FSV Mainz 05 93%90+3' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 6%, FSV Mainz 05 94%90+4' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 4%, FSV Mainz 05 96%90+5' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 3%, FSV Mainz 05 97%90+6' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 1%, FSV Mainz 05 99%90+7' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 0%, FSV Mainz 05 100%90+8' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 0%, FSV Mainz 05 100%90+10' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 0%, FSV Mainz 05 100%90+11' · 0–1 · FC Schalke 04 0%, draw 0%, FSV Mainz 05 100%

Last reading, 90+11': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave FSV Mainz 05 42% to win: they did.

  1. 24'FSV Mainz 05:Phillip Tietz 2142 +29 assist Anthony Caci 2051 +14
  2. 42'FSV Mainz 05:Nadiem Amiri 2072 +11
  3. 45'FSV Mainz 05:Kaishu Sano 2207 +8
  4. 60'FC Schalke 04:Hwang Hee-Chan 1920 −2 for Edin Džeko 1453 −16
  5. 60'FC Schalke 04:Junior Dina Ebimbe 1983 −9* for Adrian Tobias Gantenbein 1810 0
  6. 71'FC Schalke 04:Maximilian Wöber 2006 −2 for Nikola Katić 2105 −10
  7. 71'FC Schalke 04:Junior Chukwubuike Adamu 2135 −2 for Adil Aouchiche 1993 −2
  8. 76'FSV Mainz 05:Paul Nebel 2150 −6* for Lee Jae-Sung 2112 +8
  9. 76'FSV Mainz 05:Ransford Konigsdorffer 1994 +3 for Sheraldo Becker 2077 +8
  10. 79'FC Schalke 04:Vitalie Becker 1892 −8* for Robin Gosens 2045 −10
  11. 86'FSV Mainz 05:Eric Martel 2032 +1 for Nadiem Amiri 2072 +11
  12. 90+1'FSV Mainz 05:Lennard Maloney 1813 0 for Phillip Tietz 2142 +29
  13. 90+1'FSV Mainz 05:Silvan Widmer 2034 −13* for Anthony Caci 2051 +14

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations3-5-2
GL. Karius1997−11
DH. Kuruçay1997−5
DN. Katić2105−10
DT. Becker1979−4
MA. Gantenbein18100
MS. El-Faouzi1961−1
MS. Tanaka18540
MR. Gosens2045−10
MK. Karaman1950−4
MA. Aouchiche1993−2
FE. Džeko1453−16
CM. Muslić1977−3
GA. Schwolow1941+54
DD. da Costa2092+8
DS. Posch2214+21
DK. Potulski2054+42
MA. Caci2051+14
MLee Jae-Sung2112+8
MK. Sano2207+8
MN. Amiri2072+11
MP. Mwene2123+8
FP. Tietz2142+29
FS. Becker2077+8
CU. Fischer2153+20
Before kick-off: 30% · 28% · 42%(FC Schalke 04 · draw · FSV Mainz 05)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–1 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: FC Schalke 04 €2.0M, FSV Mainz 05 €6.5M.
  • FC Schalke 04 were without 1 expected starter: M. Sylla (1919).
  • All 11 of FC Schalke 04's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

FC Schalke 04

14th in Bundesliga · 5 pts from 5

  • 11 OctLSC Freiburg 1992
  • 20 SepDSV Elversberg 1948
  • 11 SepWUnion Berlin 1973
  • 5 SepDBayern München 1957
  • 30 AugLFC Augsburg 1973

FSV Mainz 05

9th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 5

  • 10 OctLBayer Leverkusen 2086
  • 19 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach 2076
  • 12 SepLEintracht Frankfurt 2094
  • 6 SepWHamburger SV 2056
  • 29 AugDSC Paderborn 07 2079

Season outlook

From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
FC Schalke 045 /537.50%<1%25%14th
FSV Mainz 057 /545.10%3%4%8th
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Bundesliga

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

H. Kuruçay
H. Kuruçay

FC Schalke 04 · +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 2001

N. Amiri
N. Amiri

FSV Mainz 05 · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2061

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Miron Muslić

Coach DNA: direct · high-pressing

Urs Fischer

Coach DNA: direct

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

FC Schalke 04: balanced profile (how Miron Muslić plays) · FSV Mainz 05: balanced profile (how Urs Fischer plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.