Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 10
FC Porto vs Estoril
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UTC
FC Porto host Estoril on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Porto 87%, draw 9%, Estoril 4%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Porto €21.6M, Estoril €1.3M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Primeira Liga matchday 10: 609 points.
- Draw chance 9%, below the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
- Primeira Liga: Diogo Costa is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2605).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Porto goals first.
- 3–010%
- 4–09%
- 2–08%
- 3–18%
- 4–17%
- 5–07%
- Other scores51%
Team Elo: FC Porto 2301 · Estoril 1692
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Porto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2526
Estoril · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1689
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Porto
1st in Primeira Liga · 24 pts from 8
- 14 OctLReal Betis UEFA Champions League2354
- 10 OctWMaritimo Primeira Liga2345
- 20 SepWBenfica Primeira Liga2331
- 12 SepWCasa Pia Primeira Liga2304
- 8 SepLManchester City UEFA Champions League2311
Estoril
18th in Primeira Liga · 2 pts from 8
- 10 OctLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1695
- 20 SepLCasa Pia Primeira Liga1680
- 14 SepLSC Braga Primeira Liga1683
- 7 SepDArouca Primeira Liga1671
- 31 AugLBenfica Primeira Liga1701
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 24 /8 | 85.9 | 80% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Estoril | 2 /8 | 30.2 | 0% | 0% | 62% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Porto: possession-based (how Francesco Farioli plays) · Estoril: balanced profile (how Vasco Miguel Lopes Matos plays)