Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 8
FC Porto B vs União de Leiria
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes, Vila Nova de Gaia
FC Porto B host União de Leiria on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Porto B 41%, draw 29%, União de Leiria 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Porto B €385K, União de Leiria €629K.
- Home advantage makes FC Porto B the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Only 1 of FC Porto B's expected starters is past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Porto B goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: FC Porto B 1523 · União de Leiria 1530
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
União de Leiria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -3.2 (Poor) · Elo 2063
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Porto B
13th in Segunda Liga · 7 pts from 7
- 10 OctWLeixoes Liga Portugal 21519
- 14 SepDVizela Liga Portugal 21436
- 5 SepLTondela Liga Portugal 21485
- 30 AugLPenafiel Liga Portugal 21439
- 16 AugLFarense Liga Portugal 21462
União de Leiria
9th in Segunda Liga · 10 pts from 7
- 11 OctLAcademica Liga Portugal 21524
- 13 SepDAmarante Liga Portugal 21515
- 6 SepWPortimonense Liga Portugal 21464
- 28 AugWTondela Liga Portugal 21464
- 9 AugLVizela Liga Portugal 21515
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B | 7 /7 | 45.1 | 1% | 9% | 12% | 13th |
| União de Leiria | 10 /7 | 47.4 | 2% | 17% | 6% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Porto B: balanced profile (how João Carlos Magalhães Brandão plays) · União de Leiria: balanced profile (how Fabio Pereira plays)